Investor Sentiment、Analyst Forecast And Stock Price Crash Risk

The global financial crisis in 2008 was the most harmful and most influential stock price crash in recent years,which triggered the world’s attention and thinking about the stability of the capital market.The healthy and stable development of the stock market is related to the personal wealth income of investors and the value of enterprises,affecting the overall healthy development of the capital market,and even the arrangement of the national strategic layout.Since the fluctuation of the stock market affects the interests of investors,enterprises and even the state in the capital market,the research perspective of scholars gradually shifts to the stability of the stock market.Investors in the market not only participate in the economic activities of the stock market,but also investor sentiment as external information affects the investment decisions of market participants.From a professional perspective,analysts publish research reports on the company’s financial status,business results,and growth,and guide market participants to make decisions.Therefore,investor sentiment and analyst forecasts affect the stability of the stock market.What effect does investor sentiment have on the stock price crash risk?What role does analyst prediction play?This paper studies the impact of investor sentiment on the risk of stock price collapse,and further studies the adjustment effect of analysts’ prediction on the correlation between the two from the perspective of analyst prediction accuracy deviation and analyst prediction direction deviation.This paper selects the relevant data of 2010-2017 Shanghai-Shenzhen A-share listed companies as a research sample,and excludes financial enterprises and ST enterprises.The study finds that investor sentiment is significantly positively correlated with stock price crash risk,that is,with investor sentiment High,the risk of stock price collapse increased;further research found that analyst bias and analyst optimism biased the positive effect of investor sentiment on the stock price crash risk.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from the level of supervision,investors and internal supervision:First,improve the market supervision system,relevant departments will effectively play the role of market supervision;second,strengthen guidance education for investors and industry analysts.;third,improve the internal supervision system of enterprises and improve the overall quality of enterprise managers.Based on the theory of behavioral finance,this paper integrates the external irrational environment—investor sentiment and important information medium—analyst forecast into the same framework,and studies the impact on the stock price collapse risk,which enriches the existing theoretical research to a certain extent.It provides a new perspective and theoretical basis for the relevant departments to regulate the stability of the stock market.