The Analysis Between Bank Loans And Macro-economy In Xi’an Based On VAR Model

As the starting point of "Silk road economic belt" in the "One belt and one road", Xi’an city gains a leap development in economy and bank loan since the twenty-first century. Now the direct financing market is not developed enough, and the bank loan is still the main capital source for most Chinese enterprises, thus making it playing an outstanding influence on the economic growth. To study the relationship between bank loan and macroeconomic can not only deepen the understanding on overall operating environment of bank loan funds, but also gain a better understanding on the real effect of the bank loan funds in the process of economic system, thereby providing favorable support for the sound development of bank loans and sustainable growth of the economy.In this article, the development and periodic fluctuation situation of the individual indicative in bank loans and micro-economy was analyzed first; Then, the scatter diagrams, H-P filter method and the SPSS software were applied to analysis related data and correlation between bank loan and macro-economic from the intuitional view and trend component as well as data related degree. As a result, it was concluded that the bank loan and macro-economic may have a certain relationship; Afterwards, co-integration analysis and Granger causality test were used to get the long-term co-integration relationship and causality between the bank loan and the macro-economy; Finally, the VAR model was established with the help of impulse response function and variance decomposition method to further study the quantitative relationship between them. Finally, some policy suggestions were provided based on the research results.The research results showed that, the long-term bank loan occupied the main resources of the interplay factor to the macro-economic than that of the short period bank loan, which means that different loan categories have different influential effect on the macro-economy. It is suggested that the bank loan structure need to be equally concerned as that of the total bank loan amount. At the same time, the utilization rate of credit funds has a stronger impact on the macro-economy among the influential relation between loan quality and macro-economic. By this taken, to promote economic growth, it is not enough to focus only on the loan amount, to improve the loan quality, namely the credit fund utilization rate is equally important.