Study On The Influence Of The Soybean Meal Options On The Price Fluctuation Of Soybean Meal Futures In China

As the first standardized commodity futures option contract traded in China,soybean meal options have been running for nearly three years since listed in 2017.Whether soybean meal options have stabilized the underlying asset price fluctuations and improved market effects become one of the concerns of all parties concerned.In recent years,China's financial market has been increasingly open to the world,and some futures and options have gradually been introduced to foreign investors.This has increased the risk of price fluctuations while expanding the market size.Since 2018,the uncertainty of trade frictions between China and US has increased,to a certain extent,the risk of fluctuations in international commodity prices such as soybean meal are increasing.Examining the impact of soybean meal option on the price fluctuations of soybean meal futures is beneficial to understanding the operation of China's soybean meal futures and options markets,make the hedging risks become more easier,and optimizing agricultural industry support policies.It also has a certain reference for the construction and development of China's commodity futures options market value.The main purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the soybean meal options on the underlying asset price fluctuations.We use the comparative analysis method and the model analysis method.First of all,the soybean meal futures market before and after the launch of soybean meal options are analyzed in terms of trading volume,holdings,speculation,and price fluctuations.The process and mechanism of asset soybean meal futures price fluctuations are analyzed,and then ARCH models and double-difference models are used for further detailed analysis.Finally,based on the conclusions,we give reasonable suggestions.The innovation of the article is mainly to update existing research data.At the same time,research methods such as double difference are extended to the field of China's commodity futures options.In terms of comparative analysis methods,the changes of soybean meal futures before and after the introduction of soybean meal options are analyzed.Overall,after the introduction of soybean meal options,the trading volume of soybean meal futures contracts has decreased,and positions have been basically stable,speculation and price fluctuations have decreased.The ARCH model analysis results show that soybean meal futures price fluctuations have a significant ARCH effect.After the option is launched,the amplitude and frequency of price fluctuations are reduced,the price volatility is reduced,and the asymmetry of futures price fluctuations also appears after the option is launched.As a result of the change,the impact level of good news has been further improved.The results of the double-difference model show that the introduction of soybean meal options reduces futures contract trading volume and price fluctuations,and has no significant effect on positions and speculation,but the decline in trading volume has a significant impact on the reduction of speculation.The gradual relaxation of the position limit of soybean meal futures experienced a process of first decline and then rise.By comparing and analyzing the conclusions obtained by the model analysis,the process of the effect of the introduction of soybean meal options on the price fluctuations of soybean meal futures can be clarified.The listing and trading of soybean meal options absorbed some speculation in the original soybean meal futures market and led to a reduction in futures trading volume and speculation,which indirectly reduced price fluctuations in the futures market.It should be pointed out that,for non-January,May,and September contracts with smaller trading volume and positions,options trading makes their trading volume more active and price fluctuations have increased.However,due to their trading volume and positions occupying the market share is small,so the overall change in the futures market is not significant.Analysis of the options listing dates and expiration dates shows that the option listing date has an active influence to futures market and reduces price fluctuations.The option expiration date has a certain impact on futures trading volume,but the futures market price fluctuations have not shown obvious abnormal.Generally speaking,the listing and trading of soybean meal options has effectively reduced the price fluctuations of the soybean meal futures market.In recent years,the Securities Regulatory Commission and Exchanges have continued to introduce new futures and option contract varieties,and China's commodity futures options market has continued to develop.For investors,while continuously improving their expertise,they should rationally participate in futures and options derivatives markets and avoid blind speculation.Although options reduce the price fluctuations in the futures market,they do not necessarily reduce market risk.For soybean meal futures for non-January,May,and September contracts,although option trading has increased its trading volume activity,it is still far from the January,May,and September contracts.Therefore,it is recommended that market participants,especially those who hedge,should try to choose the January,May,and September contracts with better liquidity.The position limit system of soybean meal options in the initial stage of listing is effective and necessary.It can be used for the listing of other types of commodity futures option contracts.The design of the option contract expiration date can be fine-tuned to reduce the option expiration date on the futures market.