Analysis On The Influence Of Shadow Banking On Stock Price And Real Estate Price In China

In 2008,the subprime mortgage crisis swept across the world,and the term"shadow bank" also attracted widespread attention of scholars at home and abroad.Some scholars believe that it is precisely the cause of the subprime mortgage crisis.The links between countries around the world are getting closer and closer,especially in economic areas.At present,China is more and more integrated into the world economy,and will be more and more impacted by the economies of various countries.In recent years,with the continuous development of China's economy,shadow banking has experienced a process from scratch to more.Since the subprime crisis,shadow banking in China has experienced blowout growth,from 0.96 trillion in early 2008 to 24.18 trillion in November 2018.In a short period of more than ten years,the scale of shadow banking has increased by nearly 25 times.Shadow banks often act as"substitutes" for traditional banks and engage in matters that traditional banks cannot or will not involve.At present,China is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading,the situation is not clear,the uncertainty of the real economy of increases,so a large number of funds "out of reality to empty",making a continuous flow of funds into the stock market and housing market,leading to the continuous expansion of the size of shadow banks.With the soaring price of real estate in China recent years,the real estate industry is not only satisfied with the residential function of residents,but also a special financial product invested by speculators.Therefore,a large amount of capital flows into China's real estate industry,which has greatly stimulated the housing price.Although the state has promulgated relevant policies to limit housing prices(restriction orders,property taxes,etc.),there are still funds to evade regulation,and indirectly enter the real estate market through the channel transactions of shadow banks,resulting in the "bubble" situation of China's real estate prices.In addition,the capital market is an indispensable part of China's financial system,and the stock market plays an extremely important role in China's capital market.Since our country opened the dual-finance business in 2010,has become one of the important channels for shadow banks to enter the stock The stock market has the characteristics of high returns and high volatility,and also caters to the concept of shadow bank capital utilization.A large amount of capital has entered the stock market,providing a large number of shadow bank financing funds with high leverage for stock investors,which has played an important role in China's stock market and increased the volatility of stock prices.Therefore,this paper first theoretically analyses the channels and modes of shadow banking's impact on asset prices in China,and then clarifies the role of shadow banking in promoting stock and real estate prices in China.Then,by using theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper compares the changing trends of shadow banking's scale and stock prices,real estate price growth rates and their correlations.This paper analyses and observes the internal relationship among the three,and through specific empirical tests,to clarify the impact of shadow banking size on stock and real estate prices in China.Through co-integration test and error correction model,it is found that with the increase of shadow banking size,liquidity will be injected into the stock and housing markets of China,which can boost stock prices and house prices to a certain extent.Through Granger causality test,we find that there is a relationship between the size shadow banking and the price of related assets:the size of shadow banking is the Granger cause of stock price and house price changes,but the changes of stock price and house price will not react on shadow banking.In view of the current situation of imperfect development,non-openness,opacity and imperfect supervision of shadow banking in China,as well as the characteristics of high leverage and term mismatch shadow banking itself,this paper makes suggestions on its development around the special national conditions of China.