Research On Local Government Debt Risk Risk Prevention And Control Zone And Optimal Issuance Scale In Hunan Province

Finance plays an increasingly prominent role in modern economic growth.Among them,the stock market,the bond market and the bank-based credit market play a very important role in the liquidity and maturity of assets.In the bond market and the credit market,the contracting parties include not only individuals,companies,financial institutions,but also governments.In the modern economic system,the government is very active in the debt market,and it is an important contracting party,and thus brings a series of problems.From the mismatch between the central government and the local government's financial power and power after the tax-sharing reform in 1994,the central government's 4 trillion economic stimulus plan in 2008,the local government has made a great rejuvenation for the Chinese nation in these two decades.At the same time,it also carries a lot of local government debt.Facts have proved that local government debt has obvious risk boundaries,and moderate debt can promote regional economic development.However,once local governments ignore their financial capacity to over-indemnify financing,creditors will bear the risk of default from local government debt.At the same time,due to the economic downturn,the reduction of local government fiscal revenue,the increase in debt ratio and the slowdown in fiscal revenue growth have further increased the risk of default of local government debt,which seriously threatened the smooth operation of China's economy.The key to preventing local government debt risk is to make scientific judgments on the prevention and control intervals of local government debt risks,and make scientific predictions on the optimal bond issuance scale.This paper analyzes the causes of local government debt by using principal-agent theory,public product theory,budget soft constraint theory and county competition theory.While reviewing the national local government debt situation,combined with the China Bond Information Network,the Hunan Provincial Government Debt Audit Report and the Hunan Provincial Government Debt Comprehensive Report,data on debt size,debt hierarchy,debt source structure,and debt projection The structure and the debt situation of various cities and states in Hunan Province analyze the current situation of local government debt in Hunan Province.In the empirical part,using the modified KMV model that joins the central government to undertake the local government debt factor,under the probability of default of 1%and 5%,the central government receives different local government by examining the debt repayment amount that accounts for different proportions of repayable fiscal revenue.The coefficient of debt.Finally,the local government debt risk prevention and control interval and the optimal bond issuance scale in Hunan Province were calculated.The research in this paper shows that the local government debt in Hunan Province is under the control of the central government's full transfer,and its optimal debt issuance is 20%-40%of the local government's annual debt service income.On the basis of research,this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations for promoting the issuance of refinancing vouchers,regulating local government debt financing and establishing bankruptcy mechanisms in order to resolve and prevent the risk of debt default in Hunan Province.