Study On The Impact Of Regional Trade Agreements On Bilateral Trade Volume

Since the 1990s,the proposal of economic globalization strategy and the rise of information technology have greatly improved the efficiency of economy and trade between countries and injected new impetus into the development of global economy and trade.During this period,as the multilateral trading system represented by WTO was in deadlock,countries and regions began to develop regional trade organizations to safeguard their own interests,resulting in a rapid increase in the number of regional trade agreements(RTAs)signed.According to WTO statistics,by 2019,the number of RTAs signed worldwide was 481,of which 302 were actually valid.With the continuous development of RTA,regional economic integration is changing the world economic pattern and exerting an important influence on global economic and trade relations.Firstly,The theoretical basis of this paper is regional trade agreement,regional economic integration,international division of labor theory and economic effect of RTA.Then,The literature review is carried out,and the literature research is mainly divided into domestic and foreign literature.Foreign literatures include the study on the overall economic effect of RTA,the study on the impact of RTA on FDI,the study on the relationship between RTA and tariff and non-tariff barriers,and the analysis on the empirical research method of RTA effect.Domestic studies include studies on the effects of a specific RTA,studies on trade growth,studies on the effects of China's participation in RTA,and implications for China from different countries' RTA strategies.Finally,the literature is reviewed comprehensively.Secondly,the status quo of world participation in RTA is discussed.First,analyze the overall situation of the world's participation in RTA.Second,different country types sign up to the characteristics of RTA.Third,what the world has achieved in participating in the RTA:the RTA has promoted the growth of inter-member trade,the diversity of countries signing up to the RTA,and the deepening of the content and form of the RTA Forth,Theoretical analysis of bilateral trade volume by RTA.Thirdly,this paper use the gravity model and the data of bilateral trade volume from 1995 to 2016 to test the impact of RTA on bilateral trade through empirical analysis.The empirical results show that RTA has a significant positive impact on the growth of bilateral trade,RTA has a trade creation effect,and RTA promotes the growth of inter-member trade,affirms the positive role of RTA construction in the world.At the same time,geographical distance,common language,economic aggregate,trade cost,foreign direct investment,net barter terms index and other control variables also have an important impact on the growth of bilateral trade.Then the robustness and endogeneity of the model are tested to verify the reliability of the empirical results and the stability of the model.Finally,this paper combines the characteristics of world participation in RTA and the empirical results of trade growth effect to draw the conclusion of this paper.Based on the conclusions,Suggestions are put forward for further development of RTA strategy:developed countries drive the development of developing countries and strengthen cooperation among developing countries;Countries with geographical proximity give priority to regional trade cooperation;Promote RTA upgrade negotiations.Finally,it summarizes the enlightenment of the world RTA development strategy to China and points out the direction for the development of China's trade agreements.