Public Learning,Inflation Expectation And Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy is one of the important means for the country to achieve macroeconomic goals.In recent years,the research on the effectiveness of monetary policy has gradually enriched.Different scholars have compared the effectiveness of monetary policy from different perspectives and different measurement methods.In the analysis of the reasons for the difference in effectiveness,most scholars have analyzed it from the perspective of the policy itself and the influence groups of the policy.In view of the convenience of obtaining macroeconomic indicators and the improvement of the transparency of central bank credit communication,the level of public obtain inflation expectation has also been further improved.Therefore,this paper introduced inflation expectation into the research framework of the effectiveness of monetary policy.It studied the impact of expected factors on the effectiveness of policy with combining the ultimate goal of monetary policy in China.In the part of theoretical analysis,this paper introduced the theories of different schools about inflation expectation theory and the effectiveness of monetary policy,then the paper analyzed the theoretical relationship between expectation factors and the effectiveness of monetary policy.After the theoretical analysis,this paper measured the rational inflation expectation with the average method.Using the state space model with variable coefficients and Kalman filter estimation method measured the learning inflation expectation.By comparing the fitting degree between the two expectations and the real inflation,it was found that there was a learning effect in the process of the formation of public expectation in China.In the next part of empirical analysis,by setting the final goal of monetary policy as the proxy variable of the effectiveness of monetary policy,a time-varying parameter vector auto regressive model(tvp-var model)was constructed to introduce inflation expectation into the effectiveness of monetary policy.The model analyzed the impact of inflation expectation on the effectiveness of monetary policy and provided suggestions for policy makers to solve the multi-objective conflict of monetary policy For reference,so as to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.This paper finds that:firstly,there are obvious learning behaviors in the formation of inflation expectations and expectations have certain self realization ability.Secondly,inflation expectation has different effects on monetary policy objectives.On the one hand,this difference is reflected in term differences,that is,inflation expectation has similar effects on economic growth,full employment and M2 growth rate in different periods,it has opposite effects on price stability in different periods;on the other hand,it is reflected in state differences,that is,when we select stability,crisis and new normal of economy in the three different economic environments,inflation expectation has different influence on the effectiveness of monetary policy in different economic background.M2 growth rate fluctuates less during the crisis and other variables have less influence on it when the economy is stable.Finally,from the four levels of the policy executor and executee,the policy itself and the policy transmission channels,this paper puts forward relevant policy Suggestions for the public to improve the accuracy of expectations,strengthen the effective guidance of the public sector and improve the effectiveness of policies.