Study On The Technical Path Of Maize Production From The Perspective Of Factor Substitution

The development of urbanization has caused the transfer of China's rural labor force to non-agricultural sectors,and the impact of the loss of rural labor force on agricultural production has attracted much attention from scholars.The transfer of rural labor force pushes up the cost of agricultural labor,and changes the price ratio of other agricultural factors to labor in production relatively.Under the background of rising labor cost,farmers,in order to maximize their profit,on the one hand,will use relatively abundant and cheap factors,such as machinery and fertilizer,to replace scarce and expensive factor,for example,labor.This means that the factor endowment structure of agricultural production in China will change.On the other hand,based on the given endowment of labor resources,farmers will choose to plant high-yield commercial crops rather than low-value food crops.However,if all farmers make the latter choice for their own sake,the stability of China's food security will in danger.Therefore,in the context of rising labor costs,to stabilize China's food production,measures should be taken to reduce farmers' production costs as much as possible,and promote the effective replacement of cheap and abundant factors to scarce and expensive factors.Further,based on structure change of factor endowment,this paper clarifies the agricultural technology path in China which will provide empirical evidence for the policy making of promoting agricultural modernization.Maize is the most important feed grain in China.In the context of rising labor cost,labor cost in maize production is bound to increase correspondingly,but we wonder whether rising labor cost will induce farmers to reduce labor input? Meanwhile,the rising labor price changes the price ratio of other input factors to labor in maize production relatively,and will this change lead to the substitution of other factors to labor in maize production? Thirdly,with the increase of agricultural labor cost and the disappearance of demographic dividend,will farmers' technology selection be conducted in the way of less labor input? To answer the above questions,we takes the major maize producing areas as an example,and based on the induced technological innovation theory and 2008-2016 farmers' tracking survey data from national fixed observation areas,this paper analyzes the regularity and characteristics of factor substitution in maize production.Further,by investigating the structure adjustment behavior of input factors in maize production,this paper identifies technology path in maize production.The research finds that: 1.As China's rural labor force has been continuously transferred to non-agricultural sectors,the rising trend of agricultural labor cost in China is obvious,and it presents regional differences and stage characteristics.Meanwhile,the rising labor cost of maize production changes the price ratio of other input factors to labor relatively.2.From the perspective of growth trend,the output elasticity of fertilizer and machinery increases year by year,while the output elasticity of labor decreases year by year,but somehow rises in recent years.In general,the output elasticity of machinery(0.089)is higher than that of fertilizer(0.078)and labor(0.021).3.With the rising labor cost of maize production,farmers are inclined to reduce labor input,and replaced by machinery and fertilizer.4.There is an obvious induced technological innovation in maize production in China,and the technological path of China's maize production tends to save labor and labor productivity orientation.Therefore,on the one hand,we should further promote the transfer of rural labor force,for example,to promote the integration of primary,secondary and tertiary industries in rural areas and extend the agricultural industrial chain,so that the rural labor force can achieve full employment.On the other hand,the research and development of agricultural machinery technology should be intensified and the service system for agricultural mechanization should be improved,so that we can further accelerate the process of mechanization and promote effective replacement between labor force and modern production factors,such as machinery.