Research On The Impact Of Sino-US Trade Friction On China's Agricultural Trade

Since the establishment of trade relations between China and the United States,the scale of bilateral trade has grown rapidly.Different from industrial products,the trade deficit of agricultural products between China and the United States has widened year by year.In 2017,the United States became the second largest import and export market of Chinese agricultural products.Since April 2018,the Trump administration released a products list originally from China,a new round of Sino-US trade friction,the two sides announced three list of increase tariffs on goods,listing from almost all bilateral trade of agricultural products,this decision may to lead great threat on China's agricultural industry and food security.This paper discusses the influence of Sino-US trade war in 2018 on China's trade of agricultural products by means of qualitative analysis and quantitative research.Firstly,the paper analyzes the characteristics of the development process and future trend of Sino-US agricultural trade,use the trade intensity index(TII),the Gini Hirschman index(GHI)and the Relative Trade Advantage(RTA)to calculate the trade intensity,products and regional structure of Sino-US trade in agricultural products from 2001 to 2017.After that,GTAP,a calculable general equilibrium model,was introduced to sort out the trade friction between China and the United States in 2018.In this paper,the list of tariff increases issued by China and the United States in three times was obtained,and the share of imports and exports of Chinese and American agricultural products in the list was calculated.Based on the list of trade wars,three tax policies were set for simulation analysis.The results show that trade friction will bring negative effects on China and the United States.The friction will effect GDP,social welfare and residents' employment.In terms of the department of agriculture,the Sino-US trade friction after China's agricultural imports and exports of agricultural products in the United States a modest rise,but the bilateral trade volume fell more than 50,Sino-US trade friction to a certain extent,change the pattern of China's agricultural products import and export,the biggest gap of agricultural products in domestic products of soybean import share will be transferred to the South American countries.At the national level,we should first recognize that the future direction of china-us trade relations is not optimistic,be prepared for long-term trade frictions between the two countries,and firmly defend our own interests.At the same time,we should actively carry out economic and trade consultations,make use of international agreements and public opinions,and make rational use of multilateral mechanisms to properly solve problems.At the level of agricultural industry,firstly,the gap between soybean and feed should be considered as a whole to solve the immediate problem.Internally,the stock of soybean stored in grain should be used,and externally,soybean import sources should be expanded and oil crop substitutes should be developed.Adjust the agricultural planting structure and expand the planting area of soybean moderately under the premise of ensuring the main grain supply;Increase the import of meat and meat products and reduce the dependence on imported soybeans by reducing the amount of protein and energy raw materials used by the domestic feed industry.At the same time,we should not rely too much on a single trading partner on one kind of agricultural products.For agricultural products with large imports,we should adjust the trade structure.