Research On The Impact Of Sino-US Trade War On China's Foreign Trade

Since the establishment of trade relations between China and the United States,the scale of bilateral trade has grown rapidly.At the same time,the trade friction between the two countries has also intensified.In March 2018,the United States announced the imposition of tariffs on US$60 billion of goods imported from China.Since then,the Sino-US trade war has broken out.At present,China is in a period of transition,and the external environment has a great impact on China.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the impact of Sino-US trade war on China's foreign trade.This paper uses the combination of qualitative and quantitative research to analyze the impact of Sino-US trade war on China's foreign trade.Firstly,it analyzes the development characteristics and the trade friction problem of Sino-US trade,expounds the development history and the cause of its comprehensive outbreak as a trade war.Secondly,it explores the taxation policy of the USA in the trade war and the impact mechanism on China's foreign trade.Finally,three taxation policies are set according to the trade war taxation list,and the GTAP model is used for simulation analysis to draw conclusions and give countermeasures.According to the analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions: First,the negative impact of Sino-US trade war on China's foreign trade is greater than that of the United States,and with the escalation of trade friction,the impact is increasing.In the three policy situation simulations,China's export volume decreased by 1.63%,3.35%,and 12.72%,respectively.Second,the trade war will have a trade diversion effect and a deflection effect.The bilateral trade volume between China and the United States has fallen sharply,and the trade volume with other trading partners in the world has risen relatively.Third,the United States' tariff increase can indeed reduce the trade deficit,but the cost is huge.Fourth,in the Sino-US trade war,China's major affected industrial sectors are manufacturing industries with strong trade competitiveness,especially machinery and electronics and transportation equipment.Fifth,in addition to the serious impact on foreign trade,the trade war will also have a negative effect on the domestic macro economy of China and the United States.