Research On The Impact Of Government External Debt On Vietnam's Economic Growth

In recent years,Vietnam's economy has developed very rapidly and the current situation is very stable.The future situation is very good.In 2017,Vietnam's GDP growth rate reached 6.81%.At the same time,Vietnam's external debt has continued to grow.Nowadays,for many developing countries,it is quite common to borrow from other countries for the development of their own economy.Since developing countries have low savings rates and insufficient internal resources to promote national economic development,they need to maintain their own economic growth by lending to other countries.Based on this,this paper takes the influence of Vietnam's foreign debt on its economic growth as the research object.(1)By studying the foreign debt of the Vietnamese government,it can help the Vietnamese government to avoid debt risks,and provide some suggestions and references for investors interested in investing and trading in Vietnam to help them reduce trade risks and maintain Vietnam's economic security.At the same time,through research to find the best government debt size and structure,in order to give some advice to Vietnam's current government debt management issues,hoping to contribute to the improvement of Vietnam's government debt management system.Finally,it is also expected to provide some meaningful reference for the formulation of the Vietnamese government debt policy by studying the impact of foreign debt on Vietnam's economic growth.(2)Using literature analysis,qualitative analysis and empirical analysis to study and find domestic and foreign literature and research reports,and to study the basis and basic theory of previous research results.Collect Vietnamese economic data,describe and make qualitative analysis of these macroeconomic data.Study models and variable indicators are set according to the research object and the influencing variables,and the regression and error correction models and various scientific analysis methods are used to analyze the research objects and the influence variables.(3)Explain the basic concept of external debt,the structure of external debt and related theories on the basis of relevant literature review;secondly,analyze the main theories of external debt affecting economic growth.Then it summarizes the development of Vietnam's external debt,the size and structure of Vietnam's external debt,and analyzes the impact of foreign debt on Vietnam's economic growth from the perspective of macroeconomics,including positive and negative impacts.Secondly,based on the brief description of relevant theories in econometrics,the basis of the model is established.By selecting the relevant variables,regression analysis and single root test are carried out to correct the model error.Finally,the countermeasures are proposed,including:establishing a stable debt structure,preventing debt risks;effectively using various loans and correctly selecting foreign debt investment;supervising to avoid bureaucracy and waste of funds;establishing an authoritative external debt management institution(4)Through the study of the current situation of Vietnam's external debt,it is found that although Vietnam's foreign debt is still expanding in recent years,it is still within the security scope.Vietnam is evaluated from the perspective of the ICOR index,and its ICOR index is higher than other Asian countries in the same period.This shows that Vietnam's use of investment capital is not very reasonable and the benefits are not high.At present,the Vietnamese government still has a large loophole in the management of foreign debts and lacks a rigorous and comprehensive management system.This is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:First,the use of external debt cannot fully utilize external debt funds and fail to meet the project.The purpose of the plan is also not to fully utilize the effectiveness of external debt.Second,most of the external debt borrowed was used for public investment,but it did not achieve the desired effect.Between 2000 and 2017,the proportion of state-owned unit investment in total social investment was extremely high at an average of 42.8%.However,due to the lack of planning and planning of the Vietnamese government's external debt management,a large amount of waste,corruption,and losses have occurred,so it is difficult to quantify the contribution of foreign debt to GDP.Third,the Vietnamese government lacks clear regulations on the duties of the management,use,and repayment of external debts,making the various rights and responsibilities and data of borrowing,use,and repayments clear and unclear.Caused certain difficulties.