Research On The Spillover Effects Of China's Monetary Policy On The "Belt And Road" Countries

With the rapid development of the world economy and the continuous advancement of globalization,the development of regional economic integration has become the norm.The economic and trade exchanges between countries have become increasingly close,and more attention has been paid to economic policy coordination.At present,the global economy is showing an open and integrated trend.The monetary policies formulated and implemented by developed countries and emerging economies will not only affect their own economies,but will also inevitably affect the economic conditions of other countries through various transmission channels.That is the monetary policy spillover effect.Since October 2013,China has proposed the "Belt and Road" initiative,and the economic and trade exchanges between countries along the line have become increasingly close,and a new regional economy is gradually taking shape.Therefore,studying the spillover effect of China's monetary policy on the "Belt and Road"countries can not only strengthen the monetary policy communication and coordination among countries in the region,but also effectively guarantee the stable development of the macro economy,which has both theoretical and practical significance.By consulting a large number of literature works,this thesis analyzes the spillover effects and transmission channels of monetary policy under different exchange rate regimes and capital flows based on the Mundell-Fleming-Dorn Bush(MFD)model,and sorts out the implementation of China's monetary policy and the "Belt and Road" sample countries economic exchanges.Besides,this paper empirically tests the existence and transmission channels of China's monetary policy spillover effects on sample countries,and proposes targeted policy recommendations.The empirical test results show that:First of all,China's monetary policy has a significant spillover effect on the "Belt and Road" sample countries' macroeconomic variables other than interest rates.Secondly,among the four channels of interest rate,exchange rate,asset price and trade,the main transmission channels of China's monetary policy to the spillover effect of sample countries are asset price and trade channels,exchange rate channel is second,and interest rate channel is the last.Thirdly,from the perspective of the effects of different types of monetary policy,the price-type monetary policy is more significant than the quantitative monetary policy in measuring the overall spillover effect,and the spillover effect of the interest rate policy is the strongest.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical tests,this paper has put forward some targeted policy recommendations:Focus on international economic policy coordination and implement a sound monetary policy;Establish a sound regional financial and economic cooperation mechanism;Carry out in-depth promotion of interest rate marketization reform;Abandon the policy operation of beggar-thy-neighbors.In order to provide some relevant suggestions for the monetary authorities of China in policy formulation.