The Analysis Of The Spillover Effect Of China’s Monetary Policy Under The Background Of "The Belt And Road"

On September 7 and October 3,2013,President Xi Jinping put forward the initiative of jointly building "The Silk Road Economic Belt" and "The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road ",respectively.Since the initiative was put forward,China and the"Belt and Road" associated countries have made good achievements in five aspects:policy communication,facilities connectivity,smooth trade,financing and people’s hearts and minds.China has made great efforts to contribute its own strength to the development of the countries along the route and the common prosperity of the global economy.Relying on the background of the continuous development of "Belt and Road"China’s position and role in the world pattern cannot be taken lightly.China’s economic and political issues have gradually become one of the focus of scholars around the world.In the rapidly changing environment of global economy,the application of realistic data to verify and perfect the traditional theoretical model also has certain theoretical value.Under this background,this paper uses the MFD model and the NOEM theory to explain the monetary policy spillover effect from the theoretical point of view,and through the theoretical model,analyzes the monetary policy transmission channel from the perspective of interest rate channel,exchange rate channel.According to the annual data report of the Belt and Road 2018,the eight most important trade related countries are sorted out.In the time range from January 2010 to December 2018,the SVAR method is used to empirically analyze the existence and different influence of China’s quantitative monetary policy on the associated countries from the perspective of economic output,inflation,interest rate and exchange rate.And explain the relative importance of influence channel through impulse response function and variance decomposition;then explain the influence of financial connection on monetary policy spillover effect from financial connection degree;finally,analyze the industrial heterogeneity of trade channel,explain the heterogeneity of import and export industry of sample related country under the influence of quantitative monetary policy spillover effect in China in detail.From the research results,the existence of spillover effect is affinned first,and then the difference of spillover effect is analyzed from the perspective of economic output,inflation,interest rate,exchange rate and so on.In terms of economic output,spillover effects maintain long-term positive shocks;in terms of inflation,similar to economic output,most of the long-term performance is stable positive shocks;there are large differences in the impact on interest rates,in the long run,negative shocks are the majority;the impact on exchange rates is mainly concentrated in the middle and early period of small decline and then rise,long-term performance is not obvious and large differences.And the relative importance of interest rate and exchange rate channels relative to economic output and inflation,with weaker performance at interest rates and exchange rates.By comparison,by variance decomposition,monetary policy acts more on the economic output of the related country through interest rate And the higher the degree of financial connectivity,the more obvious the monetary policy spillover effect,the greater the positive effect on the economic output of related countries.In the final analysis of industrial heterogeneity,from the empirical results for the export industry of related countries,China’s quantitative monetary policy in the low-tech industry,medium-low-tech industry,medium-high-tech industry and high-tech industry in the short-term to maintain a unified positive impact,over time,the impact is gradually weakened,but performance has differences.Among them,the impact of high-tech industry is the most significant;for the import industry of related countries,the impact of China’s quantitative monetary policy on low-tech industry and high-tech industry is positive in the long run,negative impact on medium-low-tech industry,and great difference to high-tech industry,but the general performance is not significant.In contrast,the medium-low-tech industry has the most significant performance.Finally,according to the above conclusions,this paper gives some suggestions on international policy coordination,interest rate marketization,exchange rate mechanism reform,and improving trade structure.