Research On The Impact Of Sino-US Interest Difference On The Change Of RMB Exchange Rate

In March 2019,the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 2.25%-2.50%.During the same period,the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar showed an appreciation trend,and the exchange rate of the RMB against a basket of currencies increased.In December 2015,the Federal Reserve entered a new monetary policy adjustment cycle.The Fed frequently adjusted its interest rate policy.During this period,the RMB exchange rate fluctuated greatly,especially in 2016 and 2017,the RMB depreciated significantly.In 2018,the RMB still showed depreciation,but the depreciation is relatively low.In 2007,in response to the subprime mortgage crisis,although the zero interest rate policy implemented by the Federal Reserve made the domestic economy gradually recover,the economies of other countries suffered huge losses during this period.At the same time,China's economic and financial openness has been expanding since the reform and opening up,gradually integrating into the world economy.And China increasingly close ties with other countries in the world,and will inevitably be affected by other countries in the world.The United States is not only politically but economically dominant.In addition,under the current economic structure,the US dollar is the main international currency and the most important reserve currency in each country.Therefore,it is particularly important to study whether the changes in US monetary policy will affect the RMB exchange rate.If the Fed's monetary policy changes have an impact on the RMB exchange rate changes,then the time-varying characteristics of the impact should be studied to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and improve its The ability to respond to external shocks is important.Therefore,based on the relevant research theories,this paper studies the impact of the Sino-US spread on the exchange rate of the RMB further.First,the relevant literature on the current interest rate and exchange rate is sorted out,including the impact of interest rates on capital flows and exchange rates,and the impact of interest rates on exchange rate changes.Then sum up the theory of interest rate and capital flow,construct the theoretical model of the impact of interest rate on exchange rate dynamics according to the interest rate parity model;once again reviewing the changes in interest rates and the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate since the 20th century,including a brief description of China-US interest rate adjustment and the trend of China-US interest rate differentials,and analysis of the impact of the US-China spread and the changes in the RMB exchange rate during the Fed's implementation of monetary policy in different directions.And predicting the future Sino-US spread and its possible impact on the exchange rate of the RMB;and the construction of a theoretical model based on the interest rate parity model,Selecting the three indicators of Sino-US spread,capital flow between China and the United States,and the RMB exchange rate,the TVP-VAR model is run on the basis of each variable,and the pulse map is obtained,and the analysis is explained according to the specific situation.Finally,the following conclusions can be drawn from the empirical analysis:Sino-US spreads can affect the RMB exchange rate through capital flow channels.The increase in Sino-US spreads will have a significant negative effect on cross-border capital flows,which in turn will lead to an increase in the RMB exchange rate and depreciation of the RMB.Outstanding time-varying features,even in the United States the direction of change is the same,its impact on the RMB exchange rate changes will be different,and even structural changes will occur;finally,based on maintaining exchange rate stability and improving the response to external shocks,from interest rate marketization,cross-border capital flow risk management,exchange rate formation Relevant recommendations were made in the areas of mechanism,domestic macroeconomics and financial openness.