Analysis Of Systematic Financial Risk Measurement And Monetary Policy Impact Mechanism In China

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,domestic and foreign economists have attached great importance to the study of systemic financial risks.Financial regulators in various countries have also taken the prevention and resolution of systemic financial risks as an important goal of governing the national economy.Once the systemic financial risk breaks out,it will not only make the national financial system collapse,threaten the macroeconomic development,but also possibly have a serious impact on the whole society through a series of chain reactions.At present,most of the studies on systemic financial risk are focused on banks or other important financial institutions,and there are few studies on macro-overall systemic financial risk measurement.In view of this,this paper chooses 22 risk early warning indicators covering macro-economy,money market,asset price and external market from the macro-overall level of our country,uses principal component analysis to measure the systemic financial risks at the level of stratification and macro-level in China.Based on the empirical results from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2018?the fluctuation trend and the causes of financial risks in China are analyzed.Secondly,based on the systemic financial risk index constructed iii this paper,SV-TVP-VAR model is applied to analyze the impact mechanism and time-varying characteristics of monetary policy on systemic financial risk from both internal and extermal aspects,and to explore the internal relationship between monetary policy and systemic financial risk.The results show that the systemic financial risk of our country shows a downward trend before the international financial crisis in 2008.The occurrence of the financial crisis makes the financial risk of our country rise rapidly.Then,due to government regulation and control,the risk is released effectively.From 2011.the systemic financial risk of our country began to climb slowly to a higher level.Since entering the new normal state of economic development,the risk has basically maintained a relatively stable state and showed a downward trend.Secondly,monetary policy at home and abroad has a significant impact on systemic financial risk,and the change of money supply has a more direct impact on systemic financial risk.In recent years,the impact of monetary policy has gradually weakened and tended to be stable.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward to optimize the national macroeconomic environment and prevent systemic financial risks.