Research On Anchoring Effect In Management Earnings Forecasts

The goal of modern financial accounting depends on the social and economic environment.In today's complex economic environment,market participants rely more and more on information for making decisions,and have higher and higher requirements for the decision-making usefulness of financial information.Compared with historical financial information,predictive financial information is more and more in line with the requirements of information users for decision-making.In China's securities market,investors and analysts need a large amount of public information to make decisions.Earnings forecast,as a voluntary disclosure by enterprise management,is crucial to investors and plays an important role in maintaining the effective operation of the capital market.As a crucial forward-looking information for investors' decision-making,the accuracy of the management earnings forecast is a basic requirement.Previous studies mainly focus on the rational factors that affect the accuracy of the management earnings forecast,but few of them focus on the irrational factors.This paper takes the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2001 to 2017 as the research sample,conducts theoretical analysis and empirical test on the anchoring effect in the management earnings forecast,so as to provide the support of irrational factors for the study on the accuracy of the management earnings forecast.In the research of this paper,firstly I analyze the existence of anchoring effect in management earnings forecasts,the adjust function of environmental uncertainty on the anchoring effect of management earnings forecasts,secondly I analyze the influence of anchoring strength of management earnings forecasts on the market reaction and the accuracy of management earnings forecasts.The study found that there are external anchoring effect,inner anchoring effect and double anchoring effect in the management earnings effect,and anchoring effect in the management earnings forecasts is affected by environmental uncertainty,anchoring strength effect in the management earnings forecasts promotes the market response,but reduces the accuracy of management earnings forecasts.The research content of this paper is mainly divided into the following six parts:The first part is the introduction.This part first introduces the research background of this paper,then introduces the research significance of this paper,respectively from the theoretical significance and practical value,and then introduces the research purpose and research method of this paper,and finally introduces the research content and framework of this paper,as well as the innovation points.The second part is literature review.This part mainly reviews and sorts out the domestic and foreign literature on management earnings forecast and anchoring effect.Firstly,this paper reviews the influencing factors,information characteristics and economic consequences of management earnings forecasts,then reviews the types,mechanism,conditions,influencing factors and practical studies of anchoring effect,and finally makes a brief review of the existing literature.The third part is theoretical analysis and research hypothesis.The main content of this part is to propose the research hypothesis of this paper based on the heuristic theory of anchoring and adjustment,principal-agent theory,information asymmetry theory and the analysis of management's earnings prediction behavior.The research of this paper mainly includes four hypotheses,among which the first hypothesis includes hypothesis 1a,1b and 1c.The fourth part is research design.The main contents of this part are as follows:firstly,the sample selection and data source of this paper are introduced;secondly,the explained variables,explanatory variables,regulatory variables and the measurement of control variables are introduced;finally,the research models of this paper are designed.The fifth part is empirical test and result analysis.This part first carries on the descriptive statistics,correlation to sample data inspection and the mean differences,and then takes advantage of the proposed nine model,adopts the method of regression analysis to test,this paper puts forward the assumption of respectively is the use of the model(1),(2)and model(3)to test hypothesis 1a,1b and 1c,using the model(4)and(5)to test hypothesis 2,using the model(6)and(7)to test hypothesis 3,using the model(8)and(9)to test and hypothesis 4.Finally,the robustness of the regression results is tested.The sixth part is the conclusion and suggestion.The main content of this part is as follows:Firstly,the research conclusion of this paper is drawn based on the research content and results of the previous paper;Secondly,relevant suggestions are put forward based on the research conclusion of this paper;Finally,the existing research deficiencies of this paper are put forward.The innovation of this paper is as follows:First,the existing literature on the study of management earnings forecasts is mainly concentrated on the rational factors on the level of management and the company,the irrational factors existing in the management to the profit forecast research is fewer,this paper studies the irrational factors existing in the management earnings forecasts-anchoring effect,enriching the management earnings forecasts of related literature;Second,as the anchoring has the important influence of the unconscious psychological behavior in uncertain decision,so it has important influence on the management earnings forecasts,but the few existing papers studied anchoring effect of the management earnings forecasts,this article studies for the existence of the anchoring,providing a new practice basis.Third,management earnings forecasts as forward-looking information to predict the future profitability of the company,are crucial for financial information users,this paper studies can remind financial information users to identify anchoring effect of management earnings forecasts in decision-making in the possible deviation,cautiously response.