Research On PPP Project Investment Decision Based On Prospect Theory From The Perspective Of Social Capital

The PPP model has been widely used in infrastructure and public services in recent years because of its innovative integration of the advantages of the government and the social capital to jointly provide high-quality products or services.As an important participant,the social capital,how to make investment decisions on PPP projects to realize the healthy development is a problem that cannot be ignored at present.However,the domestic theory of PPP project investment management is not complete,and the industry has not yet established a sound PPP project investment decision mechanism.So that some social capital have blindly invested,which has caused them to be huge Economic losses.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study PPP project investment decision-making issues from the perspective of social capital.Since PPP involves complex investment,management and organizational structure,the franchise period is long,and there are many uncertain risks,the social capital need to consider many factors when making investment choices for PPP projects.The investment decision-making of PPP projects is a multi-attribute risk decision problem.Firstly,the thesis analyzes the factors from the theoretical and practical aspects through literature research and case study.In the identification of influencing factors based on the literature research method,there are fewer reaserch of PPP investment decision-making from the perspective of the social capital.Thence,the thesis synthesizes highly cited literature on the performance of PPP projects,cooperation efficiency,key success factors of PPP projects,and the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in PPP projects.In the identification of the influencing factors based on the case study method,the loss aversion psychology of the social capital side is considered.So 18 typical failure cases are selected to analyze the cause of the project failure,and identify the various factors that influence the investment decisions of the social capital.Finally,a list of 24 influencing factors of PPP project investment decision-making from the perspective of the social capital was formed.It is sorted and summarized to six dimensions,including: social capital characteristicattribute,government characteristic attribute,project characteristic attribute,cooperative environment,cooperative management and cooperative partnership.Secondly,considering the psychological factors of social capital,the prospect theory is introduced to construct a PPP project investment decision model.In the model construction,first determine the reference point.Because the psychological expectations of the social capital reflect the psychological feelings of the subject,the thesis takes the expectations level of the social capital as the reference point.Then,according to the distance of each factor information relative to the reference point,calculate the perceived gain and perceived loss,and construct the profit and loss matrix.According to the prospect value function,the prospect value of each factor is calculated to form a prospect value matrix.The weight of each factor is determined using the entropy weight method,and the weighted prospect value is calculated to form a weighted prospect value matrix.Since the data for determining weights using the entropy weight method comes from the evaluation of experts,in order to weaken the impact of expert subjective experience on decision results,the TOPSIS rational point method is used to modify.Select the maximum comprehensive prospect value and the minimum comprehensive prospect value of different factors in the weighted prospect value matrix to form a positive and negative ideal plan.Then,calculate the Euclid distance between different proposed investment projects and the positive and negative ideal plans,and determine the relative closeness of the proposed investment projects.Finally form an investment decision model based on prospect theory,and use cases to verify the applicability and feasibility of the investment decision model.The thesis builds a PPP project investment decision model based on the prospect theory from the perspective of the social capital.It is intended to provide a reference for the social capital to make PPP project investment decisions more scientific.At the same time,the introduction of prospect theory into PPP project investment decision enriches the PPP project investment decision theory,and also provides new ideas for other scholars to make decision research.