| Trade facilitation reform has a great impact on the development of trade between countries,and scholars' research focus has gradually shifted to trade facilitation reform.In the framework of the FTA,the tariff between China and Pakistan has been maintained at a low level,and the concession space is limited.Based on the trade facilitation,this paper studies the stability of China's import trade relations from Pakistan,and lays a theoretical foundation and practical basis for building a regional economic cooperation beyond the geographical route and looking forward to the trade Pakistan economic corridor.This paper discusses China's import trade from Pakistan for the following reasons:(1)Although under the influence of traditional trade theory,China's trade has always been heavy on exports and light on imports,imported goods will also promote China's economic growth,increase enterprise productivity,increase the variety of products needed by consumers,and improve the welfare of our citizens.China's long-term trade surplus with Pakistan has attracted much attention.(3)In recent years,China's import trade has also faced new challenges,mainly due to slowing domestic economic growth,environmental problems,foreign recession and falling commodity prices.Promoting import growth and optimizing import trade Easy structure is an important embodiment of China's future foreign trade policy reform.This paper is divided into six components:the first part is the introduction,including the research background and research significance,the definition of core concepts,research methods and research structure,innovation points and possible shortcomings.In the second part,the related research of the economic corridor between China and Pakistan.the related research of trade facilitation and trade duration,and the related research of trade duration model are reviewed.The third part uses the previous research methods to construct a set of trade facilitation evaluation system,uses the principal component analysis method to calculate the trade facilitation level value between China and Pakistan in 2009-2017,and classifies its trade facilitation degree.Our country belongs to the general convenience level,Pakistan belongs to the inconvenient level.Based on the Kaplan-Meier analysis method of survival analysis,the fourth part focuses on the three characteristics of the total distribution of import trade duration,that is,the duration of import trade is short,the time dependence of trade risk rate is negative,and the "threshold effect" exists in the trade risk rate curve.The fifth part is the empirical research part,based on the HS-6 quantile trade data of China's imports from Pakistan from 2008-2017 in the United Nations Statistical Commodity Trade Database(UN Comtrade),Cloglog model in the discrete time scale model is selected to examine the impact of trade facilitation on trade duration by estimating the risk rate of trade relations.The sixth part is the conclusion and the suggestion,the trade facilitation level between China and Pakistan has the big improvement space.Based on the index system of trade facilitation,this paper measures the impact of trade facilitation on the duration of trade between China and Pakistan.The empirical results show that:(1)the level of trade facilitation in China and the improvement of port infrastructure in Pakistan significantly reduce the probability of failure of trade relations;(2)The level of trade facilitation in Pakistan and the improved quality of air transport facilities in Pakistan have increased the survival risk of Chinese imports of Pakistani products;(3)an increase in the import volume of Chinese products and the GDP level of China can significantly prolong the duration of import trade;(4)an appreciation of RMB against the rupee and an increase in the per capita GDP of China is not conducive to an increase in the survival rate of product import trade. |
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