Research On Price Fluctuation And Transmission Effect Of Chinese And American Cotton Spot Markets

China and the United States,as the world's first and second largest economies,are also the world's major agricultural producers,and have a strong influence on the development of global agricultural industries.The impact on the development of the cotton industry is no exception.Both China and the United States have played an irreplaceable and important role in the evolution of the global cotton market.The trade relationship between China and the United States is one of the important factors that affect the cotton spot market and the cotton spot market price in China and the United States.Since China's accession to the WTO in 2010,both the spot prices of Chinese cotton and the spot prices of US cotton have shown unusual fluctuations in different situations.This study builds on the analysis of the current status of the cotton spot market in China and the United States,and builds an MS-VAR model based on the monthly data of Chinese cotton spot prices and US cotton spot prices to determine the transition characteristics of the fluctuations in the Chinese and American cotton spot prices.;From the perspective of dynamic transformation of different regional systems,explore the transmission effect of cotton spot prices between China and the United States;on the basis of qualitative analysis of the influencing factors of cotton market prices in China and the United States,select cotton spot prices in China and the United States,polyester market prices,Chinese imports Four factors,cotton price and economic policy uncertainty index,construct a TVP-VAR model to measure the transmission effects of various factors on the spot prices of cotton in China and the United States under dynamic nonlinear conditions.Research indicates:(1)The fluctuations of cotton spot prices in China and the United States have stable fluctuations and unstable fluctuations.Among them,unstable fluctuations are divided into rising fluctuations and falling fluctuations.Therefore,the transmission effect of cotton spot price fluctuations between China and the United States has obvious time-varying(2)When cotton prices are in a period of rising or falling volatility,the volatility is greater.Both Chinese and American cotton spot prices are in a period of stable volatility,which lasts longer and accumulates.When cotton prices are in a period of instability and volatility,the spot cotton price in the United States is more conductive to the spot price in China.Therefore,the spot price fluctuations of cotton between China and the United States are asymmetric.(3)The spot price of cotton between China and the United States,the market price of polyester,the price of cotton imported from China,and the uncertainty index of economic policies all have a transmission effect on the spot price of cotton between China and the United States.Among them,the spot price of cotton between China and the United States is the most affected by economic policy uncertainties,and the least affected by polyester market price shocks.(4)Sino-US trade friction will cause fluctuations in the spot cotton prices of China and the United States.The Sino-US trade friction has little effect on the transmission of cotton spot prices between China and the United States in a short period of time.However,in the long run,the Sino-US trade friction will cause the Chinese cotton spot price to have a significant negative impact on the Chinese imported cotton price and the US cotton spot price.