Research On The Development Of Egg Price Index Insurance In China

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy,but it is also a weak industry because it is affected by both natural and market risks.As an important part of agriculture,the animal husbandry industry has developed rapidly in recent years,and it has played an increasingly important role in people's production and life.Among them,eggs are particularly obvious.As an indispensable consumer product for daily life,eggs are of great significance in protecting people's livelihood.Frequent fluctuations in egg prices will bring many adverse effects to farmers,distributors and consumers,which will seriously affect the development of the industry.For market entities,fluctuations in egg prices are directly related to their immediate interests.How to avoid price risks is of great significance for ensuring the stable and sustainable development of the industry.Therefore,it is of theoretical and practical significance to use egg price insurance as a research object in this article.Based on the advanced experience of implementing price index insurance at home and abroad,this paper uses the normalized diffusion model in the non-parametric information diffusion model to design the national egg price index insurance based on the egg futures price of Dalian Futures Exchange.Firstly,the main content of this article first analyzes the necessity and feasibility of developing egg price index products.The statistical software Eviews,Census-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method were used to analyze the volatility of egg prices in my country.The long-term trend after egg price decomposition verified that the egg price fluctuated sharply.This article adopts the form of "insurance + futures" in the process of designing egg price index insurance products.Egg price index insurance products that do not use "insurance + futures" have the problems that egg prices are not very insurable and that insurance companies are not enthusiastic about underwriting.If egg futures are used to diversify risks,there are problems of low acceptance by farmers and insufficient market supervision.Designing an egg price index insurance based on futures pricing has the advantages of marketization of egg trading and policy support.Secondly,design the national egg price index insurance in detail,covering the insurance participants,the subject of insurance,insurance liability,insurance period,liability exemption,dispute handling and insurance costs,etc.,and explain the rights and obligations of the insured and the insurer.Taking the eggs produced by laying hen breeding establishments with a certain scale in different regions of our country as the insurance object.The cyclical fluctuation after the price decomposition of eggs shows that the current fluctuation period of eggs is about 2 years,and this is used as the insurance period for product design.Finally,in the determination of the egg price index insurance premium rate,due to the relatively small amount of data,and the traditional probability density calculation method requires a data amount greater than 30,using Matlab software and statistical software Excel to use a non-parametric information diffusion model to expand the sample size will expand.The obtained sample size is normalized to the information distribution to obtain the probability density,and then the pure rate at different egg cost prices is calculated according to the insurance premium determination formula.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Compared with other calculation basis of rates,the price of egg futures is closer to the future spot price of eggs,which is conducive to the accurate calculation of insurance rates and helps insurance companies reasonably avoid risks.(2)After cyclical analysis,it can be seen that the fluctuation period of egg prices in China has been shortened from about three years in the past to two years.(3)For the actual business of egg price index insurance,according to the set different egg cost prices,a differential insurance rate is calculated.When analyzing the current egg price index insurance in my country,it is found that the agricultural product futures market function is not perfect,there may be systemic risks,government policies are not specific enough,and there is a lack of technical support for professionals.In response to the above problems,suggestions were made to improve the agricultural product futures market,adjust the time and duration of insurance coverage to reduce systemic risks,support specific policies and absorb and train professionals to promote the development of egg price index insurance nationwide.