Research On The Transmission Mechanism And Effect Of Alienation Risk In P2P Network Lending In China

With the support of emerging information technologies such as the Internet and big data,the trend of internet-based private finance in China is increasingly obvious.P2 P lending,as a typical model of the combination of the Internet and private finance,has developed rapidly in recent years.However,the localization of P2 P lending deviates from the information intermediary positioning and shows obvious alienation characteristics.There are a series of hidden credit risks in the online lending platform,which can absorb public deposits without the limit of leverage ratio.In order to better guide the development of P2 P online lending industry and keep the bottom line of no systemic financial risk,it is necessary to clarify the formation logic of P2 P online lending alienation risk,identify the alienation risk effect of online lending,and provide empirical evidence for the risk control of the regulatory layer.This paper first reviews the current domestic and foreign research literature from the three aspects of Internet finance innovation and risk,P2 P lending development and alienation risk,P2 P lending funds from real to virtual and risk contagion.And it points out the shortcomings of existing research,carries out a theoretical analysis on the status of domestic P2 P lending alienation risk and the generation mechanism of alienation risk.Then the paper makes an empirical analysis of the transmission process and impact effect of P2 P online loan alienation risk in China,and finally puts forward corresponding suggestions for the control of P2 P online loan alienation risk from the aspects of the construction and improvement of the system,the expansion of industry self-discipline,and the expansion of scientific and technological supervision.This paper finds that the risk diffusion from P2 P lending to traditional financial institutions follows a path from a single state to a multiplying cycle state and then to a chaotic state by using the butterfly effect model.Through the analysis and demonstration of the platform survival model,the platform run model and the bank run model,it is found that the risk of illegal operation of the platform will spread from the asset end to the online loan platform itself.The result shows the risk of the online loan platform will spread from a single investment project to the entire investment group,resulting in a run on the platform.Furthermore,it also concludes the failure of the online lending platform will transform the investment risk of the lender into the risk of a run on the bank financial system.In empirical aspect,the paper,using VAR model,finds that the higher the difference between P2 P network market average yield and bank financial product yield is,the less the savings of the banking system will be,which can tighten Banks' funding liquidity and cause higher interbank lending rate,so P2 P lending alienation risk will impact the stability of the bank's financial system.Moreover,the expansion of the yield gap between the online loan industry and the bank's financial products and the rise of the interbank lending rate have a positive impact on the rise of the second-hand housing price.Conversely,the high yield on the asset end represented by the second-hand housing also contributes to the rise of the interest rate spread on the online loan platform and the rise of the interbank lending rate to a certain extent.After that,this paper,based on the empirical,build risk spillover index to find that P2 P lending alienation risk indeed impact the traditional financial system,and that the risk overflow is a significant.And the risk of transmission exists the path from the platform to the traditional financial system then to the real estate market.However,the inflow of capital into the real estate sector with the attributes of financial products proves that the platform capital is exactly from real to virtual.About the possible innovation point,the paper extends the concept of alienation and apply it to the research field of P2 P lending,and P2 P lending alienation can be divided into two levels including the function alienation of credit intermediary and nature alienation of platform money moving from real economy to virtual economy.Besides,the paper tends to focus on the exploration about the nature alienation deepened by function alienation,and it constructs a systematic framework for the conduction process and prevention of P2 P lending alienation risk.Due to the lack and unavailability of data,there are insufficient data argumentation support and some limitations in the selection of empirical indicators,leaving room for the improvement of future research.