Research On The Influence Of Commercial Bank Leverage Ratio On The Real Economy In China

Economics determines finance,and finance is counter-productive to the economy.As the main body of the financial system,the leverage ratio of commercial Banks will inevitably affect the real economy.After the financial crisis in 2008,the relationship between the leverage ratio of the banking sector and the real economy has attracted wide attention.At the same time,China has put forward structural deleveraging in recent years despite the negative impact of deleveraging.So,should our commercial bank deleverage,increase leverage or maintain the leverage ratio constant?This depends on the relationship between commercial bank leverage and the real economy.Therefore,it is particularly important to judge the relationship between commercial Banks and coordinated and balanced economic development,and to explore whether there is an optimal level of leverage ratio.In this context,this paper explores the impact of the leverage ratio of China's commercial Banks on the real economy.Firstly,this paper defines the leverage ratio of commercial Banks in China based on scholars' research and the development of China's financial market and commercial Banks,proposes a method to measure the leverage ratio of commercial Banks at the macro level and analyzes its current situation.Secondly,thispaper sorts out the action path of leverage ratio of commercial Banks on real economy and the influence of bank leverage fluctuation on economy from the perspective of credit creation mechanism and financial innovation mechanism,and puts forward theoretical hypothesis based on mechanism analysis.And then,this paper uses the quarterly data from2005 to 2018,supplemented by vector autoregression(VAR)model and threshold autoregression(TAR)model to explore the impact of leverage ratio of Chinese commercial Banks on the real economy.The empirical results show that:(1)There is a non-linear relationship between the leverage ratio of commercial Banks and the growth rate of real economy.the increase in the leverage ratio in the short term promotes economic growth,while the increase in the leverage ratio will restrain economic growth in the long term.(2)There is an obvious threshold effect between the leverage ratio of commercial Banks and economic growth,that is,when the leverage ratio of commercial Banks below the threshold value of 4.26%,the economy will grow;When the leverage ratio is above the threshold value,it will significantly hinder economic growth;(3)The leverage fluctuation will significantly hinder the economic growth,and weaken the economy.Finally,based on the research results,this article from the commercial bank itself,regulatory authorities,the real economy three point of view put forward countermeasures and Suggestions:banking industry should grasp the leverage and growth synchronization,regulating the behavior of its own operation strictly control part of the lending business,the liquidity in the maintenance of balance at the same time pay attention to own risk prevention to maintain stable operation;The regulatory authorities should adopt moderate and steady deleveraging policies,deepen the frequency of regulatory policies and reduce the lag of regulation,improve the regulatory framework to make up for the single regulatory index of leverage ratio,and appropriately expand the scope of monitoring bank risks.At the real economy level,we should promote supply-side structural reform,improve the irrational industrial structure and overcapacity,and improve the return on investment in the real economy is the fundamental way to promote the coordinated development of commercial Banks and the real economy.