Research On Import-export Logistics Strategy In Central African Countries Based On Bayesian Analysis

In this era of globalization,the ability of international trade has become a key factor in determining a country's economic growth and industrial development.There are more and more economic exchanges and trade exchanges around the world.In such a social background,import and export trade,as a key link of communication between countries,undoubtedly occupies an important position in the development of the national economy.Logistics is the basic guarantee for the realization of import and export trade,while the development of import and export trade is the driving force for the generation and development of logistics,which closely promotes or restricts each other.Research and analysis of the relationship between the two industries help to coordinate the degree of matching between the two sectors to promote industrial development more efficiently,improve the national economy and promote the overall development of the country.Among the main factors of logistics,port throughput and waterway transportation make the most significant contribution to international trade.Landlocked countries have no access to the sea and ports,limiting their traffic and placing them in a position far away from the world market.Due to the lack of seaports,import and export of goods to and from landlocked countries must pass through another country with a port.This sometimes involves several countries,which comes with an added cost.For international trade,landlocked countries choose the nearest port of other countries for transit.This paper firstly presents a description of Central African countries.It also shows the transportation situation in Central Africa,taking into consideration the main corridors,and gives an overview of transit systems.Secondly,it shows the influence of international logistics in international trade and explores the effects of logistic performance and cost to export or import around the world.Then,the study adopts the Bayesian generalized linear model(BGLM),to analyze the influence of international logistics in Central Africa import-export.It makes a case study of two landlocked countries(Chad and the Central Africa Republic),and their transit neighbor Cameroon.The R language is used for the programming.The results show that there is a statistically significant positive correlation between logistics development and import and export trade in some cases,but not in others.Finally,based on the results,a conclusion is drawn and combined with the development of logistics in Central African countries and gives specific suggestions toward developing logistics in Central Africa.