A Study On The Baumol·Berwin Effect In China's Dual Economic Transition

The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes that China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage,and it is now in the tackling phase of transforming the development mode,optimizing the economic structure,and transforming the growth momentum.Improving economic efficiency,optimizing industrial structure and cultivating new driving forces are important contents of high-quality development.Among them,the productivity and employment structure of the labor force are particularly important.The "Opinions of the State Council on Further Promoting the Reform of the Household Registration System " issued in 2014 takes the optimization of the employment structure and the quality of employment as an important content.In response to the phenomenon of "semi-urbanization" represented by the employment of "migrant workers",it is required to adjust the household registration policy and unify The urban and rural household registration system and the comprehensive implementation of the residence permit system strive to achieve the settlement of about 100 million agricultural transfer population and other permanent residents in urban areas by 2020.Against this background,this article studies the Baumol Bowen effect in China's dual economic transition,that is,the influence of relative labor productivity of service and industry on price level,employment structure and growth rate,in order to increase its deep understanding of the inherent logic of "relative productivity-relative price-industrial structure change" in the evolution of the industry.Mainly based on the theory of unbalanced growth,the reality of the transfer of agricultural labor to cities during the dual economic transition is incorporated into the industrial structure model,and the impact of "semi-urbanization" on industry development and industrial structure evolution is analyzed.Then,it empirically tests the impact of "semi-urbanization" on the Baumol Bowen effect in China's economic transition,and tests its robustness from different regions and different city sizes.In order to explain the effect mechanism of this effect,we verified that "productivity effect" and "wage effect" are two important ways that lead to the Baumol Bowen effect.This paper sorts out or verifies the following trends and basic relationships.First,from the perspective of China's dual economic transformation,the share ofagricultural labor continues to decline,the manufacturing industry is basically stable,and the service industry continues to rise.Statistics show that the “semi-urbanization”ratio has been increasing before 2011,and with the introduction of various policies to accelerate the local urbanization of migrant workers after 2011,the“semi-urbanization” ratio has gradually decreased.Second,the price of the service industry relative to the price of the manufacturing sector has significantly increased the share of the service industry.At the same time,there is a significant negative correlation between sector prices and productivity.It shows that the relative sector price is the mediating variable that the relative productivity affects the change of industrial structure,thereby verifying the existence of the Baumol Bowen effect in the evolution of industrial structure."Semi-urbanization" has restrained the relative price rise of the service sector,that is,reduced the Baumol Bowen effect,which has weakened the rise of the "cost disease" of the service industry.Third,from the analysis of different regions,the Bauer Bowen effect in the eastern cities is more obvious than in the central cities,that is,the "cost disease" of the service industry presented by the eastern cities is more obvious.And the "semi-urbanization" in the eastern cities reduces the Baumol Bowen effect most obviously.From the perspective of different city sizes,the Baumol Bowen effect significantly exists in medium cities,large cities,and megacities,while the existence of "semi-urbanization" reduces the Baumol Bowen effect in large cities and megacities.Fourth,through internal mechanisms,with the improvement of the level of "semi-urbanization",weakening the Baumol Bowen effect on productivity and reinforcing the Baumol Bowen effect on wages.Thus it is verified that "productivity effect" and "wage effect" are two important ways that "semi-urbanization" affects the Baumol Bowen effect.The main innovation of this article is to theoretically incorporate the "semi-urbanization" that exists in China's economic transformation into the model of industrial structure change,and analyze the impact of non-urban household registration labor forces on the manufacturing and service industries after they move to cities.This deepened the analytical framework of the urban-rural dual structure and industrial structure.Based on the verification of the Baumol Bowen effect,two internal mechanisms of influence were explored.From a practical point of view,the issue of social integration has always been an important issue in the development of the country and a hot topic in academic research.The research in this paper has important implications for China's optimization of industrial structure and harmoniousdevelopment.