Research On The Impact Of Short-term Cross-border Capital Flows On China's Financial Stability

With the advancement and deepening of China's financial opening,RMB internationalization,and the "Belt and Road" process,the degree of capital account opening has continued to increase,allowing cross-border capital to flow further freely between China and other open economies.To a certain extent,cross-border capital flows brought by financial liberalization will create greater value for production and operation activities,optimize resource allocation,and promote the development of China's economy and finance.However,in recent years,China's short-term cross-border capital has become more frequent and complicated.Large-scale liquidity,and short-term cross-border capital has great liquidity,speculation and risk,which will impact China's financial stability and may induce systemic risks.Historical experience shows that the occurrence and spread of many financial crises are accompanied by large-scale and frequent short-term cross-border capital flows.Therefore,under the current complicated domestic and international economic situation,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of short-term cross-border capital flows on financial stability,explore the relationship between the two,and think about how to prevent and control the risks brought by short-term cross-border capital..Based on domestic and foreign research results and relevant theoretical foundations,this paper sorts out the current status of China's short-term cross-border capital flows,financial stability,and risk prevention and control;discusses the mechanisms by which short-term cross-border capital flows affect financial stability;from macroeconomic operating conditions,financial markets,and finance The three levels of the organization build a financial stability index covering more comprehensive indicators;considering the structural changes in different stages of the time series,this article uses the Chow Test to test the structural breakpoints;and then uses the second quarter of 2014 As a breakpoint,using the VAR model to study the impact of China 's short-term cross-border capital flows on financial stability,the results show that:(1)From 2000 to the present,China's short-term cross-border capital flows have shown complex fluctuations,with stage characteristics,and fluctuations after 2007 The amplitude has increased significantly;(2)After 2009,China's financial stability index has shown an overall upward trend;(3)There are large differences in the impact of short-term cross-border capital flows on financial stability at different stages.Before the breakpoint,short-term cross-border capital flows were mostly net inflows within a reasonable range,which had a positive impact on financial stability;after the breakpoints,short-term cross-border capital flows showed a net outflow state,which was negatively related to financial stability The impact is that a large-scale outflow of short-term cross-border capital will cause a decline in financial stability,and a decline in financial stability will also lead to a larger outflow of short-term cross-border capital.Based on this,this article puts forward policy recommendations such as orderly promotion of capital account opening,establishment of a comprehensive cross-border capital flow monitoring and early warning system,promotion of financial reform and opening up,improvement of the macro-prudential management framework,and emphasis on expected management,with a view to strengthening cross-border capital Provide reference for flow management,prevention and control of short-term cross-border capital flow risks and maintenance of financial stability.