Research On The Influence Of Short-term Cross-border Capital Flows On The Stability Of China's Commercial Banks

With the deepening of financial globalization,liberalization and economic integration,cross-border capital activities become more frequent and more short-term.Short-term cross-border capital flows have brought positive effects to the countries of the capital destination,promoting the technical progress and economic development of the countries of the destination.However,short-term cross-border capital is highly speculative and volatile,increasing the economic and financial risks of the countries of the destination.For China,the free trade area strategy,the "One Belt And One Road" initiative and the continuous opening of the capital account all reflect the acceleration of China's integration into the world financial market.While short-term cross-border capital inflow plays a positive role in China's economic development,it also has a certain impact on money supply changes,asset price fluctuations,exchange rate and interest rate changes due to its high risk and volatility,thus affecting the security of China's financial system and economic security.For Chinese commercial Banks of our country's financial market is the most important financial institutions,is the core of the monetary capital flows and therefore,openness and cross-border capital operation in capital strength continues to increase,further study of short-term cross-border capital flow mechanism of influence on the stability of China's commercial Banks,commercial Banks of our country's stable development and the healthy development of the financial system has important significance.Firstly,this paper reviews the existing research literature and defines the concepts of stability of commercial Banks and short-term cross-border capital flows.Secondly,it analyzes the influence of short-term cross-border capital flows on the stability of commercial Banks through the mechanism of asset liability,credit,liquidity and contagion effect,and comprehensively discusses the direct transmission mechanism,indirect transmission mechanism and crisis contagion mechanism of short-term cross-border capital flows on the stability of China's commercial Banks.Then short-term scale of cross-border capital flows in the empirical analysis,through the factor analysis method to establish the commercial bank stability comprehensive index,and according to the factor of maximum variance rotating set up liquidity and credit factors,through the establishment of short-term cross-border capital liquidity index and comprehensive commercial bank stability,liquidity and credit of regression model and cointegration test,and analyzed the short-term cross-border capital flows in an indirect mechanism how to conduct the commercial bank stability.Finally,reasonable countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward from the aspects of commercial Banks themselves and macroprudential to deal with the impact of short-term cross-border capital flows on the stability of China's commercial Banks.