Research On Default Risk Of Individual Consumption Loan Based On Credit Rating

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has grown rapidly,with the proportion of the tertiary industry exceeding 50%,China's economy is changing rapidly from agriculture,industry and Commerce to consumer services.Commercial banks have used financial leverage for promoting into social progress and the change of consumers awareness.This promotes the rapid development of personal consumption loans of commercial banks,stimulates domestic demand,promotes economic growth and increases the source of income of banks.With the continuous expansion of loan scale,risk problems in bank management are becoming more and more prominent.The growth of non-performing loan gradually erodes the profit of the bank,destroys the credit environment of the market,and squeezes out the loan demand of high-quality customers.In order to control the risk effectively,commercial banks select borrowers through the way of customer credit rating,which effectively reduces the incidence of non-performing loans.With the continuous optimization and innovation of credit rating model,credit rating plays an essential role in the loan default risk management of commercial banks.At present,the research on credit rating of personal consumption loan in China is limited to the national level,and lack of county and urban areas.As a result,the credit rating model can not accurately identify the risk status of customers in some areas and resulting in non-performing loans.Based on the data of Xiangxi Postal Savings Bank's consumer loan stock,this paper selects 21 general indexes of 7 categories in the customer credit rating table of national commercial banks.A binary logistic regression model was established by adopting SPSS 22.0 software,and 375 data samples from 8counties and cities of Xiangxi Post Saving Bank Of China from 2012 to 2018 were analyzed.It is concluded that there are 9 indicators of marital status,unit nature,credit repayment source certificate,total income repayment ratio,proportion of mortgage,classification of credit report,regional GDP level,regional credit environment,loan amount,which have significant effects on whether the loan clients in Xiangxi will be overdue in the future.After deleting other interference items,these 9 indicators can be reevaluated to form a customer credit rating model with Xiangxi characteristics.This paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions on optimizing the credit rating model and default risk management from four aspects according to the above researchconclusions,combined with the work practice of commercial banks,such as adjusting the elements of loan products and the scale,Strengthening the management of loan default risk,Establishing a regional characteristics rating model and improving the comprehensive ability level of the credit team building.