Study On Default Risk Of Individual Housing Mortgage Loan By GX Branch Of Qinnong Bank

In recent years,with the rapid growth of Chinese economy and the general improvement of people's living standards,therefore housing has become more than just necessities of life for the resident,it is also a means of financial investment.With increasing number of residents who are beginning to invest idle funds into the real estate market This indirectly promoted the rapid development of China's real estate industry.As for now,individual housing mortgage loans are still the main financing channels for residents to purchase houses.Due to the fact that personal housing mortgage has prolonged terms,more stable interest income and lower risks,it has also been favored by the major commercial banks on the market,becoming a competitive credit business.Nonetheless,at the same time as the scale of personal housing mortgage loans rapidly expanding,risks have gradually begun to be exposed in the meantime.With reference to the record of commercial banks in various countries,the time for the risk of individual housing mortgage loans from issuing loans to default is between 4 to 8 years.From the development of personal housing mortgage loans in China,it has initially entered the high incidence of default.Taking 2013-2016 as an example,the rate of non-performing loan for personal housing mortgage loans in China were 0.26%,0.29%,0.38%and 0.44%respectively,indicating an increasing trend year by year.Therefore,based on the problems encountered in the development of personal housing mortgage loans in our country,it is of profound significance to recognize risks and take measures.China's personal housing mortgage loans has many risks,for instance the market risk,operational risk,liquidity risk,but the borrower's default risk is the most important one that the commercial banks are facing,in addition,it is also the greatest risk.In this essay,we take GX branch of Qinnong Bank as an example,selecting a valid sample of 416 individual housing mortgage loans from 2008 to 2016 of this sub-branch to conduct an empirical study on the default risk in loans.In the empirical research,we select the value of a total of 13 random variables,gender,age,marital status,education background,income,occupation,household registration,loan amount,monthly payment loan,the proportion of down payment,loan interest rate,loan term,housing value from the three dimensions of borrower,loan and real estate characteristics,descriptive statistics and the establishment of Logistic multivariate non-linear regression model to test the impact of these variables on the extent and direction of the risk of default,concluded that:personal housing mortgage loan can default due to many factors,each factor can exert different impact and direction,the occurrence of loan defaults is the result of a combination of multiple factors.Therefore,commercial banks must fully verify the creditworthiness of their borrowers prior to the issuance of individual housing mortgage loans.After loans are issued,commercial banks should perform good credit management and pay close attention to the borrower's economic and real-life changes in real time,update credit assessment,so as to ensure the safety of bank personal credit funds.