Risk Analysis Of Wheat Revenue And Insurance Pricing In Anhui Province

As one of the three major food crops in Anhui Province,wheat is an important part of agriculture in Anhui Province,which plays an important role in promoting social development and economic stability.Since the implementation of agricultural insurance in Anhui Province in 2008,wheat planting insurance has effectively apportioned and transferred the natural disaster risks faced by farmers in the process of agricultural production.However,with the progress of science and technology and agriculture,market price risk has become a risk that farmers need to face.The existing wheat planting insurance can not protect the price risk caused by the change of supply and demand in the wheat market,while the wheat income insurance can cover the income loss caused by the change of yield,price or both of them.It can not only meet the risk management needs of farmers,but also reduce the loss of income and promote the development and progress of agriculture in Anhui Province.This article focus on the present situation of wheat planting as well as development in Anhui Province,and analyze the feasibility of trial wheat income insurance in Anhui Province.On this basis,the income risk of wheat is analyzed,the risk factors of wheat yield reduction are analyzed from natural and technical conditions,and the risk factors of wheat price reduction are analyzed from two aspects of market supply and demand and financial factors.Then the H-P Filter is used to separate the wheat yield and price data collected over the years,and the fluctuation term is used to represent the wheat yield and price risk over the years.On the basis of fitting the distribution of the two,the income risk of wheat is simulated by using Copula function and Monte Carlo simulation method,and under the guarantee level of85-100%,the net premium rate for wheat income insurance is 0.41-4.55%,slightly lower than the net premium rate for current yield insurance.Finally,the design and development suggestions of wheat income insurance are given to provide reference for the trial implementation of wheat income insurance in Anhui Province.