Research On "Black Swan" Phenomenon Performance Forecast In A-share Listed Company

The frequent occurrence of black swan events in recent years has caused great instability in China's capital market.The "Black Swan" incident is difficult to predict,which not only seriously threatens various entities in the capital market,but also affects the healthy development of the capital market.Performance forecast,as an auxiliary channel for accounting information disclosure,is forward-looking information that predicts the changes in earnings of listed companies in an accounting cycle.The performance forecast system is set up to make up for the gaps in the periodic financial reports of listed companies,to ensure the consistency of the listed company's accounting information release,and to alleviate information asymmetry in the capital market.What is the "black swan" phenomenon of performance forecast,why it is generated,and how does it affect China's capital market? This article explores the impact of this issue from the three levels of regulators,industry,enterprises,and investors.It systematically analyzes the definition,causes,and common characteristics of the performance forecast "black swan" phenomenon,and explores its impact on different levels.In this paper,five statistical analyses are used for the first time to study the phenomenon of "black swan" in performance forecast.Through the relevant data statistics and verification to prove.The first statistical analysis shows that the phenomenon is getting worse.And through the reverse inspection,it proves that the supervisory level has loopholes in the management of the violation of the performance notice;The second statistical analysis: the proportion of enterprises with non-state ownership is much higher than that of enterprises with state ownership.The third statistical analysis: the existence of "recidivism" behavior.And through the verification of financial data,there are significant changes in the operation.The first,second and third statistical analyses and proofs explain the external driving forces of the phenomenon.The external correlation of the phenomenon: the loopholes of the supervision layer to the performance forecast supervision make the management conduct self-interested behavior.The fourth statistical analysis: prove that "ST" type of listed enterprises occupy a certain proportion;The fifth statistical analysis proves that most of the valid data are "garbage stocks",and further verifies the status of "garbage stocks" through data analysis.The fourthand fifth statistical analysis explains the internal driving force of the phenomenon.The internal correlation of the phenomenon: the business situation of enterprises is poor,most of which belong to "junk stocks".According to the statistical research results,the paper puts forward the influence of the "black swan" phenomenon on regulators,industries,enterprises and investors respectively.The influence on the supervisory layer will lead to the lack of supervision and further lead to the distortion of information in the capital market.For the industry and enterprises caused credit crisis,reduce the capital market for enterprises to support the strength;For investors will cause the loss of investors.Finally,the thesis puts forward corresponding countermeasures for these three aspects.(1)Regulatory authorities should strengthen institutional innovation and improve accounting standards and performance warning system;(2)Industry and enterprise level to release the performance forecast to carry out mandatory audit process;(3)Establish a multi-level regulatory system for investors,strengthen the protection of investors by laws and regulations,and strengthen investment education for small and medium-sized investors.