Risk Management Research On The Manufacturing Enterprise Supply Chain With The Concept Of Black Swan

Abstract:Since the1990s the management of supply chain also became a competition between the supply chain as a whole in the company’s core because of the increasing number of supply chain companies. Balance and stability of the whole supply chain has become the focus of all supply chain of business concern. The supply chain can reduce the stability of the overall risk of the supply chain and increasing the vulnerability of the supply chain are the important obstacles of the supply chain management, therefore risk management has attracted the scholars’and research institutions’attention increasingly."Black Swan" concept refers to deal with sudden unpredictable and terrible black swan ideas and methods.to deal with the risk management of supply china of "black swan"things, we must study the theoretical basis in the relevant supply chain risk combined with the characteristics of manufacturing enterprises.Through a wide range of relevant literature surveys and data collection, the paper summarize the current situation and problems arise where this risk management of supply chain, clarify the importances and reality of black swan theories and analysis; analysis the relationship between supply chain and risk management of supply chain in order to build the base system framework of risk management of supply chain. Based on the framework, the paper carries out three-part study risk identification, risk assessment and risk control based on "Black Swan".These three sections, clarify the sources and classification in risk of supply chain of manufacturing enterprises, analysis the application of risk identification, risk assessment and risk control based on "Black Swan". The paper uses the questionnaires, fuzzy AHP, expert assignments and other methods to build the indicator System and three-index system of each index weight through judgment matrix and process consistency test in risk assessment of supply chain of manufacturing enterprises by judgment matrix and process consistency test and a series of risk assessment results obtained, and the method is verified by case analysis of the reasonableness of assessment methods.