Study On The Correlation Effect Of Price Fluctuations In China’s Real Estate Market

The price fluctuation of the real estate market has always been a major social issue to the whole people.It is not only related to the well development of China’s real estate market,but also closely related to the fundamental interests of the people.China’s first-hand housing market,second-hand housing market and rental market are important components of the real estate market.The coordinated development of each other is conducive to the in-depth implementation of domestic policies such as "renting and purchasing with the same right" and "housing and housing are not speculated",so that all people can live long-term goal in terms of housing.How to clarify the related impact of price fluctuations in China’s first-hand house,second-hand house and rental market is of great significance for strengthening the macro-control of China’s real estate market in the future and building a long-term mechanism for its healthy development.This paper firstly puts forward the research perspectives and innovations by combing and analyzing the relevant literature at home and abroad.Secondly,it defines the relevant concepts of real estate market prices,and reviews the characteristics,supply and demand theory and market failure theory of the real estate market.At the same time,based on these theories,the correlation mechanism of price fluctuations in China’s real estate market is analyzed from the three correlation dimensions of time,space and structure.Finally,by constructing the ARCH model,GARCH-BEKK model and VAR model,using the first-hand house,second-hand house and rental market price data from 8 typical cities in China from January 2008 to January 2020,the agglomeration effect,spillover effect and linkage effect of price fluctuations in China’s real estate market are being researched empirically.The study found that:(1)There is a certain agglomeration effect of price fluctuations in China’s real estate market,and the agglomeration effect of price fluctuations in the first-hand housing market is stronger than that of second-hand housing market and rental market.(2)There is a certain spillover effect of price fluctuations in China’s real estate market,and the spillover effect of first-tier cities’ real estate market price fluctuations is more prominent than that of other cities.(3)China’s first-hand house,second-hand house and rental market price fluctuations have a certain linkage effect.Among them,the price fluctuation of the first-hand housing market has a significant impact on the price fluctuation of the second-hand housing market,and the price fluctuation of the second-hand housing market will also have a certain impact on the price fluctuation of the rental market.Therefore,in the future,we should strengthen the coordinated management of different markets in the real estate market regulation,improve the supply and demand balance management of the real estate market in first-tier cities,pay attention to the key role of first-hand housing market price fluctuations on the stability of the entire real estate market,improve the operating mechanism of the sustainable development of the second-hand housing market,and accelerate the guidance and cultivation of the healthy development of the rental market.