Spillover Effect And Influencing Factors Of House Price Fluctuation Based On Social Network Analysis Method

The fluctuation of housing price has always been the focus of people from all walks of life.Not only because the housing price is related to the overall development of the national economy,but also because housing is related to the vital interests of the people.In recent years,the fluctuation of urban housing price is relatively obvious.Since 2015,housing prices in most cities across the country have shown an overall upward trend.With the advancement of economic integration,population migration and factor flow become more and more frequent,the connection between regions becomes closer and closer,and the fluctuation of housing price between cities has spatial correlation.When house prices rise in one area,they spread to other cities and eventually spread across the country and the world.The housing price fluctuation between cities presents obvious spillover effect,forming a multithreaded and complex network structure.Therefore,it is helpful for governments at all levels to formulate effective macro-control policies for real estate,prevent risk shocks in the real estate market,and realize trans-regional coordinated control of housing prices to clarify the spillover relationship and risk sources of inter-city housing price fluctuations.This paper selects the price index of new commercial housing from January 2011 to November 2022,uses the TVP-VAR model and the generalized prediction error variance decomposition to measure the spillover index of housing price volatility in35 large and medium-sized cities,and analyzes the characteristics of the spillover effect of housing price volatility in Chinese cities.Then,based on the spillover index measured by the TVP-VAR-DY model,a directed spillover network of housing price volatility was constructed,the overall,individual and local characteristics of the spillover network were analyzed,and QAP correlation analysis and QAP regression analysis were used to find out the key driving factors of housing price volatility spillover.Based on the above empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:First,the housing price fluctuation among 35 large and medium-sized cities has obvious spatial spillover effect.Cities with higher average spillover levels of housing price fluctuations also have relatively higher spillover levels.However,the average spillover level of housing price fluctuations is relatively low in cities.There are also differences in the spillover levels of housing prices between cities of different grades and regions.Second,the overall spillover network of housing price fluctuations is closely related,and housing prices between cities influence each other.The degree of center degree of Beijing,Guangzhou,Nanchang,Qingdao,Changsha and other cities of center degree,middle center degree,close to the center degree are higher,is located in the center position in our country city house price overflow network,plays the important role of the intermediary.However,Haikou and other cities have a low degree of centrality and are at the edge of the network.From the results of block model analysis,we can divide 35 big cities into 4 big blocks.Among them,10 cities such as Beijing,Tianjin,Shijiazhuang,Wuhan,Changsha,Guangzhou,Fuzhou,Nanchang,Chengdu and Qingdao are net benefit plates,and 10 cities such as Xiamen,Shanghai,Hangzhou,Hefei,Ningbo,Lanzhou,Shenzhen,Jinan,Zhengzhou and Nanjing are two-way overflow plates.Ten cities,including Harbin,Taiyuan,Xi ’an,Hohhot,Nanning,Changchun,Urumqi,Dalian,Guiyang and Xining,are the net overflow plate,while five cities,including Haikou,Kunming,Shenyang,Yinchuan and Chongqing,are the broker plate.Third,the spillover relationship of housing price volatility between cities is positively correlated with the population difference between cities,and negatively correlated with the per capita GDP difference,the ratio of the sum of deposits and loans of financial institutions to GDP difference,and the geographical distance difference.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions for local governments to formulate effective macro-control policies and realize trans-regional coordinated control of housing prices: First,when formulating macro-control policies for real estate,we should not only consider the characteristics of the local real estate market,but also incorporate the transmission path and action mechanism of real estate between cities into the analysis framework,so as to reduce the impact of housing price fluctuations in other cities on the implementation effect of local housing policies.Second,differentiated regulation policies should be put forward to avoid the phenomenon of "one size fits all".Third,promote balanced and comprehensive regional economic development.Fourth,establish a sound real estate risk early warning mechanism and information disclosure mechanism.