Foreign Direct Investment And China's Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Making accurate judgment on the fluctuation of domestic macro-economy can ensure the stable development of economy.Since the beginning of reform and opening up,the domestic economy has made great achievements.Foreign direct investment plays an important role.From scratch to overflight,FDI has achieved tremendous growth.In 1983,domestic foreign investment was only 922 million US dollars.By 2019,the amount of foreign investment has reached 1381 billion US dollars,an increase of 149 times.In addition,while FDI continues to flow in,it promotes the increase of domestic investment to a large extent and becomes an important driving force of current economic growth.This paper mainly constructs an empirical model of FDI and economic growth,and analyzes the relationship between FDI and macroeconomic changes.First of all,this paper constructs an empirical model to study the long-term stable relationship between foreign direct investment,consumption,investment import and export and other related indicators.Through impulse response and variance decomposition,it shows that foreign direct plays a role in promoting domestic growth.Secondly,this paper constructs a single variable data model and a multi variable mixing data model for foreign investment,fixed asset investment,consumption,import and export.Through the mixing of monthly data and quarterly data,it has advantages over the benchmark co frequency model.In the single variable model,compare the full sample estimation and intra sample prediction accuracy of the mixing data model,and predict GDP according to the characteristics of the mixing model;in the multi variable model,introduce FDI into the mixing data model,and investigate the impact on China's economic growth under the new economic situation.Based on foreign direct investment and "troika" to forecast China's quarterly GDP growth rate,the results show that:(1)under the condition of long asynchronous,the prediction of variables is different,and the prediction effect will be worse with the increase of step length;(2)the prediction accuracy of the mixing data model with the introduction of foreign direct investment year-on-year growth rate is better than that of the mixing data model without introduction,mixing The prediction accuracy of the data model is better than that of the benchmark model,and the ratio of RMS residual is smaller.(3)in the multiple mixing prediction model,the mixing regression model of the year-on-year growth rate of foreign direct investment is introduced,which is more stable for the real-time prediction and short-term prediction of the quarterly GDP growth rate,thus providing a more accurate prediction reference range.The combination of foreign direct investment and model provides a new platform for quantitative research on the impact of foreign direct investment on China's macro-economic fluctuation,thus providing an important reference for the government to stabilize foreign investment and carry out macro-control.