Study On The Influence Of Financial Crisis Contagion On Russian Economy

The financial crisis that began in 2008 in the United States not only caused great damage to the financial market and real economy of the country of origin,but also showed rapid contagion,which also made the financial economy of other countries suffer a strong impact.This phenomenon is called "financial cri sis contagion" by the official and academic circles.The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has led to the serious negative impact on the economy of Russia and even the whole world,and correspondingly many economic problems have emerged,which gradually expanded the original simple and easy to solve problems,even extended to many areas of economic life.In contrast,Russia is facing economic sanctions from European and American countries,which in fact once again impose external economic influence on Russia.Therefore,it is of great significance to summarize the lessons from the last financial crisis for Russia to cope with the current difficult situation.First of all,in the modern macroeconomic theoretical system,the four major objectives of macroeconomic policies are to achieve sustained and stable economic growth,reduce unemployment,ensure price stability,and achieve balance of payments.The financial crisis broke out in 2008 in the United States,through international trade,exchange rate and other channels,has had a serious impact on the world.Therefore,Russia's macroeconomic operation is also facing very serious problems.From the perspective of infection channel and infection effect,this paper analyzes the impact of financial crisis infection on Russian economy,and puts forward that the overall judgment is reasonable.Economic growth is slowed down by export reduction,employment and balance of payments are negatively affected,which in turn affects domestic product supply,and finally forms a joint reflection of inflation pressure.Based on this theoretical analysis,this paper will use the error correction model to test the existence of the contagion effect of the U.S.financial crisis on Russia.At the same time,according to the estimated value of the contagion effect,a VAR model of the impact of the financial crisis on Russia's economy will be established to test the correctness of the theoretical analysis results.At present,this paper has analyzed the serious impact of the financial crisis on Russian economy from the theoretical and empirical perspectives.It has demonstrated that the financial crisis has brought the decline of Russian domestic production and investment,which has brought about the decline of GDP growth,the impact of domestic product supply and thus the promotion of inflation,unemployment and the instability of Russian Ruble currency The problem.On this basis,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for Russian economic development from the perspective of drawing lessons from history and enhancing the anti risk ability of Russian economy.