Research On Establishment Of Early Warning System For Food Security In China

Food has always been the material of people's life and production,and it is a necessary condition for ensuring people's survival.Without food,the political,economic,and social security of the country and the world will be greatly threatened,and ensuring food security is to solve this problem.The key to a crisis.With the impact of locust disasters,volcanic disasters,new crown pneumonia epidemics,and the formal Brexit impact of the United Kingdom since 2020,downward pressure on food production is greater,and the global food security situation is not optimistic.In order to cope with such a dangerous situation of food insecurity and improve emergency response capacity,in recent years,research on food security early warning systems has achieved certain results.From the original simple calculation of a single indicator method to the development of a comprehensive indicator method,applications have also emerged.The early warning system of algorithms in the computer field,but because the early warning system itself is huge and the factors are related to each other,there are still ambiguities in the index standards and different classification concepts,which have caused the current food security early warning system to be too simple,and there is no uniform and Practical and effective systems use early warning of food security.In recent years,machine learning has risen widely and is applied to various fields.Therefore,applying models in machine learning to the construction of food security early warning systems is a good way to solve the current dilemma,and it has been found to have strong applicability.Based on the application of the principal component analysis method,the total output,the area planted to crops,the area under arable land irrigation,and the proportion of grain exports to the export of major agricultural products were selected from 10 variables such as total output,disaster-to-disaster area-to-disaster area,and fertilizer application.There are 5 effective warning indicators of the grain reserve ratio for the construction of early warning system.According to the economic early warning theory,determine the warning limits and warning divisions of warning indicators,and formulate a trigger mechanism for the warning.Then,the SVR model was used to construct a food security early warning system from 2000 to 2016,and the annual food security status was analyzed.Compared with the actual situation each year,it was concluded that the early warning system was very effective.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions for improving the effectiveness of the food security early warning system are mainly composed of three aspects: creating a food big data chain,establishing a food security early warning operation platform,and participating in global early warning security governance.