The Study On Food Security And Early-Warning System In China

The major goals of this paper are to summarize the status of food security in China ever since the reform and opening up, to predict food security at China level and provinces level by VAR model, to synthesize a comprehensive index of food security by primary component analytical methods, and then early-warning of food security based on the said processes. The specific research are developing in four aspects as follow:The first part is mainly introduces the food production and the situation of supply in China since the reform and opening up, and the situation of food consumption in China and the estimation of China's food storage. Based on that, it makes a qualitative assessment of the overall situation of China's food security. Results show that the production of food crops has a larger extent of phased fluctuation compared with those of meats, aquatic products and vegetables, and that the extent of fluctuation of the amount of food owned per capital is basically consistent with that of the food production; that the extent of fluctuation of the yields of meats, aquatic products, poultry and egg, vegetables and fruits is small, and is increasingly trending up. In the perspective of consumption, with the transitions from poverty to dressing warmly and eating one's fill, and from dressing warmly and eating one's fill to well-to-do, and further into a richness level, the food consumption has been changing from severe shortage to the direction of quantity increase, quality improvement and relatively stabilized state. Consumption of grain ration and vegetables of rural households will be gradually dropping, while the animal food will be gradually going up. The future demand of grain ration and vegetables of urban households will be decreasing at a relatively high speed, and their demand of vegetables is also trending down, with the demand of meat decreasing slowly, the demand of domestic poultry and edible oil relatively intense and the demand of aquatic products will be increasing at a steady rate.The second part is about the early-warning mechanism and the indicator system of food security. Based on the summary of economic theories and practices of early-warning both at home and abroad, we gave a depiction of the flow chart of food security early-warning, and another depiction of the historical fluctuation chart of relevant indicators of food security. The results show that, in the perspective of food production, the extent of fluctuation in the developed provinces is relatively large, mainly own to the relatively fast promotion of urbanlization in metropolitans in recent years. On the contrary, the extent of fluctuation in the undeveloped provinces is relatively small. On the whole, the extent of food production fluctuation in the major food production areas is comparatively stable. Similar to the fluctuation of food production, the cultivated areas of respective provinces are grown fluctuate in a homologous trend.The third part is about the positivistic study of food security early-warning. Based on the indicator system of food security early-warning, there makes predictions and early-warning of the food security at country and province levels with the charts of early-warning. Results show that in the 1980s and in the 1990s, China's food security status had been in the situation of no alarms,...