The Study On The Impact Of Third-Party Payment On China’s Money Supply

In recent years,the rapid development of third-party payment has provided convenience for people’s production and life.At the same time,its influence on the monetary fields has gradually attracted attention.China’s third-party payment has developed rapidly and has a large scale.According to the statistics of i Research,in 2018,the scale of China’s third-party mobile payment transactions reached 190.5 trillion yuan.Third-party payment is very likely to have an impact on China’s money supply system.After sorting out the relevant literature,I found that there are few literature which study the impact of third-party payment on money supply.From the perspective of research content,many existing papers only study the influence of third-party payment on one or two aspects of money multiplier,velocity of money and money supply,lack of systematic research on the influence of third-party payment on money supply system.From the perspective of research object,the existing literature is basically the research of third-party Internet payment,not involving third-party mobile payment.However,in recent years,with the rapid development of third-party payment,the development speed and market scale of third-party mobile payment have far exceeded third-party Internet payment.Therefore,in order to get more accurate conclusions,third-party mobile payment is also included in the research scope of this paper.Firstly,this paper summarizes the overall situation of third-party payment from four aspects: the definition,the classification,the characteristics and the development status of third-party payment.This chapter gives the definition of third-party payment,introduces the different types of third-party payment from two perspectives,summarizes the four characteristics of third-party payment and introduces the development of third-party payment in China.Then this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the influence of third-party payment on China’s money supply.First of all,I use the money multiplier model to analyze the influence of third-party payment on China’s money multiplier.Then,from the two aspects of substitution acceleration effect and substitution transformation effect,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the influence of third-party payment on China’s velocity of money.Finally,from the perspective of the transformation of different levels of money,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the influence of third-party payment on China’s money supply.Then this paper uses empirical method to analyze the influence of third-party payment on China’s money supply.The whole empirical analysis is divided into four sections,modeling and analyzing the influence of third-party payment on six variables: cash leakage rate,excess reserve rate,fixed deposit rate,money multiplier,velocity of money and money supply.Using analysis method of time series,this paper establishes the vector autoregression model and the vector error correction model.Finally,the conclusions of this paper are summarized.Policy suggestions are strengthening the supervision of third-party payment field,improving the relevant laws and regulations;reducing the influence of third-party payment on the effect of monetary policy;optimizing the intermediate objective of monetary policy;strengthening research on third-party payment.The further research direction of this paper is also analyzed.