The Formation And Contagious Path Of Default Risk Within Private-owned Enterprise Group

Under the background of deleveraging,the external financing of private enterprises is contracting,with the problems exposed in their development in the complex environment,leading to the outbreak of large-scale private enterprise debt default tide.126 bonds were issued by private enterprises,accounting for 76.36% of the total number of bonds in default in 2018,involving 113.619 billion yuan.Many debt defaults occurred in enterprise groups among them.There are complicated relations among the member enterprises of enterprise group,which makes the default risk of enterprise group more complex than that of single enterprise.Once a debt default occurs,it will further infect the parent subsidiary,affiliated enterprises and financial institutions in the complex relationship of the group,which will have a more serious impact.There are some researches on the contagion of default risk in academic circles,but still have three deficiencies.Firstly,the research object focuses on the infection among financial institutions,but not on the level of enterprise groups.Secondly,the research focuses on the static analysis of a certain financial feature of enterprises.Thirdly,most of the research methods adopt the large sample empirical method,which has its limitations.Based on the above,this paper selects the regional leading private enterprise Sanpower Group with huge debt default crisis to explore the whole process of debt default risk formation and risk contagion of private enterprise group.It further divides it into three specific issues,establishes frameworks,carries out analysis and demonstration.First of all,in the incubation period of the risk of debt default,we analyze three perspectives of enterprise's behavior,the continuous M & A and expansion,debt scale formation and solvency,which reveals the "susceptible state" of the group before the outbreak of the debt crisis.Then it combs and analyzes the process of the outbreak of the risk,and constructs the analysis framework of the risk contagion path.It is established as two aspects of direct contact and indirect contagion,and further subdivides direct contact contagion into risk contagion based on supply relationship,associated guarantee and capital lending.The indirect contagion is subdivided into three market sentiment fluctuation methods.Finally,it summarizes and refines the risk control measures of group debt default and offers a proposal.This paper attempts to develop a "vaccine" for the debt default risk contagion of private enterprise groups,and obtains the following research enlightenment: Firstly,the enterprise group should control the source of infection in time and establish a risk monitoring and early warning system.For the important subsidiaries with low credit rating and high credit risk,we should focus on monitoring,early detection,early identification and early intervention;secondly,to cut off the transmission path of debt default risk infection,we need to strengthen the construction of "firewall" and deal with the relationship between coordination and isolation in business distribution.Reasonable layout of guarantee network,control of equity pledge proportion,timely upgrading of product structure,and maintaining good relationship with stakeholders can alleviate the impact of indirect contact contagion in the process of debt default risk contagion;thirdly,enhance the immunity of enterprise main body,prudently expand merger and acquisition,moderately leverage financing according to their own operating capacity,profitability and development potential,comprehensively assess its own debt paying ability and improve the group's overall anti risk ability.To sum up,this paper summarizes the general conclusion through the in-depth analysis of debt default risk contagion of Sanpower Group,which can provide reference for group risk management and control to enrich practical research.