Study On Supply Chain Default Risk Contagion Model And Risk Control Strategy

With the development of economic globalization, in order to maintain core competitiveness in the increasingly competitive market, the production of the enterprises business scope gradually expands from domestic to global, and the principal part of the competition has changed from the enterprises to the supply chain. But in recent years, the number of global events, financial crisis and natural disasters have increased, it’s difficult to seize the demand of the products under the background of globalization market uncertainty,becomes more vulnerable. As the development of emerging economies, due to the market maturity, the industry development stage and the limitation in the social credit environment construction of our country, the internal and external environment of the supply chain has more uncertainty. The globalization of supply chain layout has made business relationship between enterprises become increasingly complex, the contact between more closely. Therefore, on the study of the internal and external risks of the supply chain, strengthen the research of the risk of default causes by the correlation between enterprises, will be of great importance in the enterprises to conduct a comprehensive risk management.In this paper, firstly, analysis the transmission mechanism of the supply chain risk of default from the perspective of supply chain enterprises exist correlation, find that the default risk is passed to their associated enterprises through risk carrier, which form the risk default contagion phenomenon in the supply chain. Then, use the intensity model to measure the risk of default contagion between upstream and downstream enterprises of the two-level supply chain, and shows one member’s default will cause a forward leap on other related members’ default intensity by contagion. At last use medicine SIRS epidemic model to analysis the state of the enterprises of the supply chain in the risk of default contagion, which shows that the node enterprises must improve their supply chain risk prevention consciousness and make efforts to eliminate risks and continuously improve the existing risk defense mechanism to obtain the continuous immune ability of risk. At last, propose the default risk control strategies which accord with the practice of supply chain risk management from the node enterprises of supply chain, supply chain network and social environment.