Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of Listed Companies In Three Northeast Provinces Based On Combined Model Of GBDT And Logistic

Under the wave of reform and opening up in China,domestic listed companies face more severe challenges.However,the risks of listed companies in the three northeastern provinces due to financial problems are much higher than those in the economically important provinces in China.The possibility of seriously affecting the healthy and sustainable development of local and companies.Generally speaking,corporate financial risk is a gradual process.Identifying financial risks early in an enterprise can effectively avoid the formation of financial crises and reduce or avoid losses caused by financial risks.Therefore,study the financial risk early warning of listed companies in the three northeastern provinces,establish an effective financial risk early warning model,and provide scientific advice and reference for listed company managers and investors.This article first reviews the relevant research on financial risk early warning methods and portfolio models,and explores the limitations of different forecasting methods.Secondly,from the risk management theory and business cycle theory,theoretic analysis of the company's financial risk management is carried out,and the causes of the listed company's financial risk are discussed.Then,analyze the application and applicability of Logistic regression model and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)in the field of financial risk early warning,explain the combination of GBDT and Logistic regression,and build a financial based on the combination of GBDT and Logistic regression Risk early warning combination model.Finally,based on the financial statement data of the listed companies in the three northeastern provinces from 2012 to 2018,the company was treated as a sample of financial risk companies with special treatment and financial violations,and the remaining companies were normal financial samples for empirical research.The information value was used to solve the debt solvency,39 indicators of six dimensions including development ability,operation ability,profitability,etc.were used to evaluate financial risk prediction ability,and then 26 indicators were selected as model input indicators,so as to predict and analyze the financial risk of listed companies in the three northeastern provinces and model evaluation.The financial risk prediction results of listed companies in economically developed regions are discussed horizontally.The research results show that the combined prediction accuracy of the GBDT and Logistic regression combined model is 91%,which is significantly higher than that of the logistic regression single model,which proves the effectiveness of the combined model financial risk warning;the financial risks of listed companies inthe three northeastern provinces are mainly reflected in the total asset net profit margin,Changes in indicators of asset operation capability such as capital preservation rate,and enterprises can identify financial risks early by observing changes in indicators such as asset operation capability,operation capability and development capability.