Research On The Impact Of Leverage Industry Structure On Credit Risk Of China’s Commercial Banks

The issue of corporate leverage ratio includes not only the aggregate level,but also the structural level,the core of which should be the structural issue of leverage ratio,and the industry structure of leverage ratio is an important aspect of structural issues.The implementation of the structural deleveraging policy marks that China’s deleveraging work has been adjusted from a single reduction of the overall leverage ratio of the corporate sector in the past to an optimization of the industry’s credit structure,and commercial banks,as the main body of China’s financial system,should give full play to their efforts to optimize the industry’s credit.The role of the structure,reduce their own credit risk,and actively cooperate with the advancement of structural deleveraging policies.To this end,focusing on the current basic ideas of structural deleveraging in our country to prevent and resolve financial risks,the impact of the leverage ratio industry structure on our country’s commercial bank credit risk can provide a reference for the optimal allocation of bank credit funds among industries.This article takes 1686 listed non-financial enterprises and 15 listed commercial banks in China as the research object,and the sample research range is from 2008 to 2019.The main work is as follows: Firstly,according to the industry classification disclosed in the annual reports and semi-annual reports of listed commercial banks,reasonable adjustment and integration are carried out,and 10 representative non-financial industries are selected,and the industries selected by integration are classified into periodic industry and defensive industries are divided into two categories;Secondly,using the data of the asset-liability ratio of 1686 sample companies to measure the leverage ratio of 10 types of non-financial industries;then,based on the linear model and the threshold panel model,empirical tests were conducted by industry,and the research results shows: Firstly,China’s cyclical industries and defensive industries are heavily differentiated in leverage ratio;secondly,China’s commercial bank credit risk has industry concentration.In terms of industry distribution,the worst-hit areas for non-performing loans of various commercial banks are wholesale and retail,and manufacturing;Thirdly,the overwhelming majority of cyclical industry leverage ratios are positively correlated with commercial bank credit risk,that is,rising industry leverage ratios will deteriorate business bank’s credit risk.In the defensive industry,except for the information technology industry,the leverage ratio of other industries has no significant effect on the credit risk of commercial banks;Fourthly,the impact of industry leverage on the credit risk of commercial banks is non-linear,and for the threshold effect of industry leverage,there are differences between the periodic industry and defensive industry.According to the above research conclusions,suggestions are made for commercial banks to optimize the industry’s credit structure,reduce credit risk,and match structural deleveraging better from three aspects.Firstly,commercial banks should strengthen the classification management of credit businesses in various industries.Commercial banks should refine the banking business plan based on the differences in the impact of different industry leverage ratios on commercial banks’ credit risk,and optimize the industry’s credit structure through a combination of deleveraging,stable leverage,and addding leverage;Secondly,commercial banks should pay attention to the impact of changes in domestic and foreign economic situations on various industries of the national economy in a timely manner,fully grasp the development trends and fluctuation laws of the industry,and strengthen industry periodic analysis;Finally,commercial banks should establish clear and practical feasible industry credit entry and exit standards.