Research On The Influence Of Exchange Inquiry Letter On The Quality Of Performance Forecast

Our government has been unremittingly carrying out the reform of market-oriented economic system and optimizing the efficiency of market allocation.Over the years,the regulatory philosophy of China's economic market has also changed.At present,the core regulatory philosophy is mainly to promote "deregulation and strengthening regulation",which is reflected in the front-line regulatory mode of exchanges,which is from "pre-review" to "post-supervision",such as the inquiry letter system of exchanges.The non-punitive regulatory measures are aimed at urging listed companies to improve information disclosure.The performance forecast system is another policy closely related to the annual financial information.During the disclosure of the financial report of two years or two quarters,shareholders,outside investors and government regulators need to obtain key information about the operation status and future development of listed companies according to the performance forecast.As a kind of forward-looking information,the performance forecast is disclosed before the publication of the annual financial report,which can reveal the possible risk signals in advance.However,the serious problem of inaccurate performance forecast becomes a major obstacle to its risk warning function.How to improve the quality of performance forecast is a major issue closely watched by relevant institution makers and the public.The performance forecast disclosure in China is a special mode combining compulsory and voluntary.Compared with the disclosure of annual financial report,the performance forecast has more room for free manipulation.Therefore,the performance forecast quality can reflect the level of enterprise information disclosure to some extent.In view of this,does the exchange letter of inquiry affect the quality of earnings notice? Does this effect improve or worsen the current level of forecast quality? Is the effect affected by other factors? The answers to these questions are being watched closely by investors and governments alike.In order to explore the above issues,this paper collected the exchange inquiry function data of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2018.Under the guidance of the efficient market hypothesis,information asymmetry theory and signal transmission theory,this paper empirically studied the impact of exchange inquiry letters on the quality of performance forecast.At the same time,this paper further discusses whether exchange inquiry letters need to be effective through deterrent effect and information effect,in order to provide useful Suggestions and enlightenment for the follow-up actions of inquiry mechanism.The conclusions of this paper are as follows :(1)the inquiry letter of the annual report of the exchange will prompt the receiving enterprise to reduce its performance forecast deviation,the inquiry letter of the exchange can play its role of information governance;(2)The property right nature of listed companies can affect the play of the governance role of the exchange inquiry letter,that is,compared with state-owned enterprises receiving letters,non-state-owned enterprises receiving letters are more likely to reduce their performance forecast deviation.This shows that the exchange inquiry letter needs to play its role through the deterrent effect;(3)The exchange inquiry letter has different governance effects for different disclosure types of performance notice.Compared with the letter receiving enterprise that issues voluntary performance notice,the letter receiving enterprise that issues mandatory performance notice is more likely to reduce its performance notice deviation.This conclusion reveals that the mechanism of exchange inquiry letter needs to be effective through information effect.This study provides direct evidence for the effectiveness of the exchange inquiry on this innovative regulatory mechanism,complements the literature on the direction of economic consequences caused by the exchange inquiry letter,adds relevant research to the forward-looking information of earnings forecast,and also has important implications for the regulatory mechanism of improving the quality of listed companies.