Research On The Default Risks Of Bonds Of Companies In China

China's GDP growth rate has begun to decline since 2012,and the average GDP growth rate from 2012 to 2018 was about 7.13%.The Chinese economy has shifted from high-speed growth in the past to medium-speed growth,from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven,and the Chinese economy has entered a new economic normal.Against the backdrop of industrial restructuring and the decline in economic growth,the new normal of economic development,the phenomenon of bond defaults began to gradually emerge.The occurrence of bond defaults not only gives investors a signal of increased credit risk,but also easily triggers a chain effect.In view of the many uncertainties in the macro economy in the future,the continued occurrence of defaults will inevitably damage investors' confidence and increase the risk aversion in the bond market,which will affect the financing function of the bond market.Investigate and strengthen the prevention of default risks.2018 is a period of high incidence of bond defaults in my country,and this trend continues in 2019.my country has gone through five years since the first bond default,and it has the foundation for in-depth research in terms of time length and number of cases.This article focuses on bond defaults and analyzes the influencing factors of bond defaults through case studies.On the basis of previous research and analysis,the literature research method,statistical analysis method,case study method,financial indicator analysis method and event research method are used to analyze the credit risk contagion effect,financial distress theory and Z-score model.First,sort out the statistical characteristics of bond defaults and make statistics on the causes of corporate bond defaults in my country;secondly,the case study object Young Eagle Farming and Animal Husbandry,due to bond defaults,eventually caused the company to close out of the market,with certain representativeness.After combing the whole process of default,this paper first uses the Z-score model to conduct risk assessment,and then analyzes the causes of the default of the young eagle agricultural and animal husbandry bonds from the internal and external aspects,and analyzes the economic consequences after the default.Relevant suggestions for young eagle farming and animal husbandry.Through the analysis of the overall bond default and the analysis of the young eagle farming and animal husbandry cases,this study finds that: the external macroeconomic downturn and the tightening of the social financing environment will deepen the vulnerability of debt issuing companies;while the internal causes of default are concentrated in the decline in profitability,Factors such as aggressive foreign investment and a large proportion of equity pledges,these factors have a negative impact on the cash flow in operating activities,investment activities,and fund-raising activities,which in turn leads to bond defaults.The reason for the defaults explored in this article is the common problems of defaulting companies,hoping to play a certain warning role for other bond issuers;this article also puts forward suggestions on the prevention of default risks from the three dimensions of issuers,regulators,and investors.Provide reference to all participants to reduce the risk of bond default.