Measurement And Evolution Analysis Of Demand Structure Of North And South Countries Under The Perspective Of Global Value Chain

Mainstream international trade theories are based on the assumption of homogeneity of consumers and ignore the impact of different preferences of consumers on international trade.The demand-side studies based on the overlapping demand theory often exist data bias due to the current prosperity of intermediate trade,which makes the real demand characteristics of various countries fail to be fully displayed.Therefore,it is the biggest breakthrough for this paper to re-estimate the real demand of north and south countries to reflect their demand preferences from the perspective of global value chain.The inter-country input-output(ICIO)model describes in detail the flow of intermediate goods and final goods between countries(or regions),so we can strip out the actual final demand of countries according to the country source of products and the export processing situation,avoid the huge error of measuring the demand structure of countries in the income indexes indirectly,and comprehensively investigate the evolution characteristics of north-south demand structure from the three dimensions of intensity,length and green trade.In order to quantify the differences in demands of different countries,based on the theory of overlapping demands,this paper constructs the Demand Similarity Index(DSI)in the context of global value chain,so as to further reflect the differences in demand preferences of major countries in the north and south.The results show that :(1)At present,the world is still dominated by north-north trade,but the overall trend of north-south trade is further deepened,and developed countries prefer products from developing countries to added value.Similarly,developing countries also prefer the added value from developed countries,which indicates that in the north-south trade,the added value from the production of developed countries is higher and they are in a dominant position in the global value chain.(2)The average steps of value-added transferred at the sectoral level reflects the length of product value transfer from various sectors to final demand in various countries.The results show that northern countries generally prefer products with more complex transfer of consumer value,especially in some sectors represented by the processing and manufacturing industries.(3)The demand structure of north and south countries is investigated from the perspective of green trade,and the results show that the northern countries obviously prefer to consume low-carbon and low-energy products,but when time goes by,the demand for green products in the southern countries gradually increases.(4)From national demand similarity index distribution,no matter from the added value of dimension,step length dimension or environmental endowment dimension,the northern demand structure difference between countries as a whole to maintain at a low level,and whether south or the north country,are increasingly favored unit requirements contained in the implied carbon,can lower the product,therefore looked from the environmental dimension of endowment of north and south countries demand similarity degree increase year by year.