Measurement And Influence Mechanism Of Value Added Exports In China's Manufacturing Industry

The great transition of international division of production has prompted the global production model to become the new normal state of economic globalization.The rapid development of trade in intermediate goods gives a challenge to traditional trade statistics,and the large deviation between the trade scale measured by traditional trade statistics and real trade gains has reached a consensus.Thanks to the deeper development of Global Value Chain,China has become the "world factory",meanwhile also suffered trade frictions and conflicts most and the international trade environment becomes worse and worse.So,how is the value increment of China's rapid growth of exports?How is the international division status and trade structure of benefits distribution of China's manufacturing industry in global production chain?The presence of new international trade statistics system which bases on trade in value added provides the feasible approaches and ways to explain the mismatch between the rapid expansion of the export scale and the actual trade gains.From the perspective of trade in value added statistics system,this thesis extended to give an overall examination of the situation and evolutionary course.By empirically explaining the low value-added and huge exports of China's manufacturing industry,this thesis tried to reveal the mechanism and the path of ascension of China's value added exports,to supplement and enrich the existing study in this area,and hopefully to provide policy enlightenments for efficiently promoting the profit ability of China's value added exports and reshaping the favorable trade pattern.After systematic review of related literature and clarifying relevant concepts,this thesis can be seen from two dimensions of macro input-output technique and micro enterprise behavior.Through factual analysis and empirical test,this thesis tried to build theoretical models,show the stylized facts of Chinese manufacturing value added exports and grasp the influencing mechanism and the path of ascension.Based on input-output technique and enterprise production behavior,we constructed theoretical models.On the one hand,we tried to transform the intermediate goods and final goods to final demand,and then decomposed gross trade flows at the sector,bilateral,or bilateral sector based on final demand standard and input-output technique.This method made up the deficiency in the present decomposition frameworks which were based on endogenous variables(such as output and export),and achieved internal consistency between the traditional trade statistics method and trade in value added mode.On the other hand,in consideration of firm heterogeneity and the internal relation between industrial added value and value added exports,we deduced the micro accounting method of value added exports after deducting the domestic value added from intermediate input imports.This micro method enriched the present micro research area,and provided the foundation for further study on mechanism.Stylized facts analysis showed the existence of the growth characteristics of China's manufacturing exports which were "high export volume,low value added".First of all,China's manufacturing exports grew rapidly,while the value added exports rate had declined overall.And China's manufacturing value added exports rate presented the asymmetric "V" type.The export volume does not mean value added exports,so the rapid growth of the export scale did not bring a corresponding increase in the value added exports.Secondly,the optimization trends of China's manufacturing value added exports growth structure was obvious,but the value added capacity of these industries was weak.Knowledge-intensive manufacturing industries were gradually replacing the labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industries and had become the main source of value added exports growth.The value added exports of service industries continued to rise,but the proportion and volume were still small.The value-added exports growth which was generated by Knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry was not enough to make up for the decrease by the traditional manufacturing industry.Thirdly,the opening degree of China's manufacturing industry was gradually deepening,and development of foreign trade was becoming more and more balanced,but the international trade structure of benefits distribution was getting worse.The country source of China's manufacturing value added exports showed that the share of traditional major trading partners was gradually declining while the share of newly industrialized economies and emerging market countries was rapidly increasing.Whereas the study on bilateral trade interests showed that China's exports had created "win-win" pattern of global production mode while China's profitability had declined and interest distribution situation was getting worse.The empirical test on influencing mechanism indicated that the entry of foreign investment and exchange rate were the key micro factors of China's manufacturing value added exports,and trade cost might well explained the changes of China's manufacturing value added exports.This thesis deduced the influencing mechanism of enterprise value added exports rate and bilateral value added exports change based on enterprises decision-making behaviors,and aimed to grasp key factors which influenced the value added exports change.Then we made use of Chinese Annual Survey of Industrial Firms(CASIF)data and word input-output tables,and constructed tests by dynamic GMM and fixed effect panel data models.Econometric tests showed that,firstly,as the key influencing factors,the entry of foreign investment and exchange rate had a significant impact on China's manufacturing value added exports by changing the relevant prices of imported intermediate inputs and domestic intermediate inputs.Secondly,trade cost was the crucial influencing element of bilateral value added exports changes which is through the influence of world input-output correlation coefficient.The effect of inhibition became more obvious with the further away distance between countries.Trade agreements significantly promoted the increase of bilateral value added exports which was strengthened much stronger with deeper trade agreements.Further analysis of Chinese manufacturing's evolutionary path in global value chain showed that grasping correctly the advantage and way of Chinas participant international specialization was the premise of promoting our country's position in global value chain in the context of interactive global fragmentation of production and trade pattern.The distortion of traditional trade statistics on export scale and trade structure was just the surface reason of Chinese manufacturing industry's huge export volume and low value added.So,we should try to do the following measures to promote the steady growth of Chinese manufacturing value added exports and the promotion of GVC status.Firstly,deepen the study on the new trade statistics system;improve the existing international trade statistics system and reshape the new thinking of the global production model.Secondly,promote value added exports structural optimization,broaden the advantage manufacturing field of value added exports,and avoid the risk of trade structure change.Thirdly,make the most of foreign investment spillover effects,promote regional economic integration,build the favorable domestic and foreign environment of value added increase,and then establish the safe and win-win global value chain system.