Research On The Impact Of Technological Innovation,Monetary Policy And Intertemporal Consumption Choice On Macro Economy

The report at 19 th CPC National Congress clearly pointed out that China's economy has entered a new stage from high-speed growth to high-quality growth.The 2020 Central Economic Work Conference clarified a few priorities: keeping China's economy moving forward while maintaining stability,strengthening the level of science and technology to promote high-quality economic development,preventing and controlling financial risks while maintaining sustainable and healthy economic development,transforming the economy growth momentum and optimizing the economic structure.It shows that the top-level decision of the central government has set a clear direction to promote the high-quality economic development.Technological innovation with core competitiveness,a proactive and stable monetary policy and the renewal of residents' consumption concepts are necessary guarantees to change the economic development mode and improve the economic development quality.Following the logic from theoretical research to model constructing and next to empirical research,a four-formula DSGE model is set up to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of technological innovation,monetary policy adjustment,and residents' intertemporal consumption choices on China's macroeconomic development.It aims to provide theoretical supports and decision references to expedite technological innovation,implement a prudent monetary policy,guide residents to improve consumption concepts,promote economic structural transformation and achieve high-quality growth.The research direction is determined based on the investigation of researches associated with impacts of the technological innovation,monetary policy adjustment and intertemporal consumption choices upon macroeconomy and the policy documents of central government's on high-quality economic growth.By introducing the natural interest rate level,a four-equation New Keynesian macroeconomic model,including the household,enterprise and central bank,is established in view of the three-equation New Keynesianism model,which is transformed into a computable dynamic equation system by logarithmic linearization and used to empirically analyze the short term and long term effects on China's macroeconomy from the technological innovation,monetary policy adjustment,and residents' intertemporal consumption choices by impulse response,variance decomposition and steady state analysis.The empirical analysis comes to some findings.Lowering the interest rate significantly increases the short-term actual output level while aggravating the inflation and fluctuations of nominal interest rate.The technological innovation has least short-term impacts on actual output,but keeps persistent long-term impacts with approximate effects as interest rate shock,which does not result in inflation and distinct interest rate fluctuations.Update of residents' consumption concepts and increases of intertemporal consumption level promotes the actual output without influences on inflation and nominal interest rate.So some suggestions are proposed to upgrade the economic structure and promote high-quality economy development,including increasing R&D investment in science and technology to advance the technological innovation with core competitiveness and improve the overall technology level,implementing a prudent monetary policy to avoid overheating economy and exacerbate inflation,raising the residents' income steadily and guiding their intertemporal consumption choices especially for rural residents,etc.