A Study On The Combination Of Industry Rotation And Fundamental Analysis In The Securities Market

With the prosperity of China's financial market,the capital market has also experienced rapid development,and the number of investment types has continued to increase.The advantages of the simple traditional fundamental analysis of the securities market analysis investment strategy have become less obvious.It is imperative to come up with a practical investment strategy in the market.Industry rotation is one of the trending investment behaviors in the securities market,and plays a vital role in grasping the stock market.The emergence of rotation indicates that the stock market investment hotspot sector has shifted.Investors grasp the characteristics of rotation and rationally configure their investment portfolios,which will result in excess returns.The correct choice of the industry in the stock market investment and the effective stock selection model are the important directions of this paper.Through fundamental investment analysis combined with industry rotation investment strategy research,we can obtain effective investment methods,increase profits,and reduce investment risks.First,through the rotation law in the economic cycle,determine the rotating industry with the Merrill Lynch clock,select individual stocks in the industry,establish a stock pool,and at the same time increase in operating income,weighted return on net assets,total assets,total liabilities,and net profit.As the fundamentals of analysis,create a stock selection mathematical model,screen the stock pool,and establish a selected stock pool;secondly,calculate the return rate of the selected stock pool to verify whether a positive return rate can be obtained,and the market with the same period The index is compared to verify the effectiveness of the model and the stock selection strategy,and backtested through different time periods under the same cycle to further verify the effectiveness of the stock selection strategy;finally,the current and future cycles are pretested Judgment,put forward suggestions on industry selection in different cycles.The sample period selected in this paper is the stage of economic stagflation,and the two stagflation periods from April to July 2010 and January to November 2011 were selected as the research interval.Select the top two food and beverage and household appliances industries in the stagflation phase as the primary stock pool,and then use the mathematical model created by the fundamentals to determine the six stocks as the portfolio of selected stock pools and verify the two stagnation phase investments The average rate of increase of the portfolio return over the same period of the Shanghai Stock Index reached 9.3% and 7.6% respectively,outperforming the broader market index of the same period,indicating the effectiveness of the investment strategy.According to the mathematical model created,the stagflation period from March 2017 to September 2017,the recession period from January 2018 to 2018,the recovery period from March 2016 to February 2017,and August 2010 to 2010 The overheating period in December was verified separately.The average growth rate of the portfolio return rate of each period compared with the increase of the Shanghai Stock Index reached 22.3%,63.4%,7.1%,and 20.18%.Further verified the effectiveness of this investment strategy in the full cycle.