Research On Consumer Credit Promoting Reform Of Real Estate Supply Side Under The Background Of New Era

Since 2016,with the support of bank credit funds,the development of China's real estate market has shown that housing prices in first-and second-tier cities are heating up rapidly,and the housing de-cycling cycle in third-and fourth-tier cities has been significantly extended,which has brought certain hidden dangers to the smooth operation of the real economy.Facing the new development trend of real estate,it was first proposed that “the house is used for living,not for speculation” at the Central Economic Work Conference,which clarifies the residential property of the house,and “the house does not speculate” becomes the central idea of the long-term regulation mechanism of real estate.In the context of the new era,it is important to study how consumer credit can promote the structural reform of real estate supply side,which has great theoretical and reality guide meaning to promote the stable and healthy development of China's property market and sustained and steady economic growth,improve people's living standards,create a better life for the people,and build a welloff society in an all-round way.Based on theoretical analysis,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of consumer credit to promote real estate supply side reform.Consumer credit will affect the supply and demand of the real estate market through the principles of financial accelerator,asset price bubble and credit rationing.Under the guidance of the theoretical model,based on the perspective of the housing enterprise,the consumer perspective and the perspective of commercial banks,the mechanism of consumer credit to promote real estate supply side reform is further segmented.At the same time,according to the above mechanism,the monthly data of China's first,second and third tier cities from 2016 to 2018 were selected to construct a fixed effect panel model,and the impact of consumer credit on the real estate supply side was analyzed by city.The main conclusions were as follows: 1.Due to the level of development of the cities is different,the impact of consumer credit on the real estate market is also different.Consumer credit has had a significant impact on real estate supply-side reforms across the country,both from the perspective of housing companies and consumers.2.The price conduction effect is negative in the first and second tier cities,and gradually weakens,but is positive in the third tier cities.The scale expansion effect shows a negative correlation in the first,second and third tier cities,and the impact is decremented in turn.3.The research conclusions on psychological expectation effect and asset appreciation effect are different.As far as the first-tier cities are concerned,due to strict regulation and control policies,consumers' psychological expectation effects and asset appreciation effects are negative,and the absolute value is the largest,second-tier cities are second,and thirdtier cities are the weakest.According to the results of theoretical analysis and practice test,from the perspective of government,central bank,commercial bank and consumer,this paper proposes policy recommendations for reform includes improving government functions,strengthening credit supervision,standardizing credit review and improving investment level,which can promote real estate supply side.