| In recent years,in order to control the rapid rise in house prices,the country has introduced a variety of regulatory policies.As the source of the real estate market,land is the source of curbing the rapid rise in housing prices and regulating the real estate market.The land supply side reform includes many aspects,but mainly includes the three aspects of land supply quantity,land supply price and land supply structure.This paper analyzes the current status of the impact of land supply on real estate prices under supply-side reform,builds a theoretical model of the impact of land supply on real estate prices,on this basis,the annual data of Shijiazhuang from 2008 to 2018 is adopted to establish the vector autoregressive model,the quantitative analysis of the impact of land supply on real estate prices under supply-side reform in Shijiazhuang is conducted,based on impact status and results of quantitative analysis,the reasonable suggestions are put forward for the land supply side reform of Shijiazhuang.The specific content is as below:First of all,through consulting and studying relevant literatures at home and abroad on the impact of land supply on the housing prices,it is found that most of the studies are based on the national or provincial perspective,and few are based on the urban perspective,it is discovered that there are very few studies on the land supply side reform at the same time.Secondly,the paper clarifies the concept of the supply side land reform,the land and the real estate industry,introduces the related theories needed for the urban land supply in regulating the real estate market,combines with the related concepts and theories to analyze the impact of land supply on real estate prices in Shijiazhuang under supply-side reform,it is found the government has increased the land supply and strictly control the real estate market to curb the rising house prices in recent years.Then,according to an quantitative analysis of the impact of land supply on real estate prices in Shijiazhuang,the theoretical model of the land supply impact on the real estate prices is built,and select the amount of land supply,the price of land supply and the structure of land supply as independent variables,and the real estate price as the dependent variable.Use a vector autoregressive model for regression analysis to explore the impact direction and extent of land supply on real estate prices in Shijiazhuang under supply-side reform.It is found that land supply,land supply price,and land supply structure were all causes of real estate prices when the lag was 1-2,and the amount of land supply was long-term.It has a significant negative effect on real estate prices,and its contribution level increases with the increase of the lag order.When the lag is 2 orders,the contribution of land supply is 2.07%;the land supply price has a significant positive effect on real estate prices for a long time.The degree of contribution also increases with the increase in the number of lagging stages.With the second lagging stage,apart from its own impact on real estate prices,the contribution of land supply prices is the largest,29.29%;the proportion of other land use in the land supply structure has a long-term impact.The real estate price has a significant positive effect,and its contribution is not significant compared to the quantity of land supply and the price of land supply.The degree of contribution to the structure of land supply is 0.87% when it lags the second order.In the end,for the above analysis,there are the suggestions put forward for the land supply side reform in Shijiazhuang: first,in terms of the quantity of land supply,improve the urban land supply plan,establish a sound land information disclosure system,and rationally control the amount of land supply;second,in terms of land prices,strengthen the monitoring and analysis of urban land prices,and improve the bidding price;third,form a diversified land supply structure in the land supply structure,differentiate the land supply in each administrative region,so as to achieve effective supply and enhance the land use value. |
